The possibility of an alliance between Donald Trump, former president of the United States, and Javier Milei, president of Argentina, has generated speculation about how their policies could impact cryptocurrencies. Although both leaders have different approaches to the economy and the market, their stances could significantly influence the global crypto ecosystem.
Donald Trump's Current Stance Towards Cryptocurrencies
Public Criticism: Trump, in 2019, called Bitcoin “volatile and based on thin air,” making clear his skepticism toward cryptocurrencies as an alternative to the U.S. dollar. However, during his administration, some regulators, such as the CFTC, showed openness toward blockchain technology.
Recent Changes: In his return to politics, Trump has avoided forceful statements on the subject, but his interest in keeping the United States as a leader in technological innovation could open a window for cryptocurrencies.
Crypto Policy by Javier Milei
Bitcoin Advocate: Milei has been vocal in her support for Bitcoin as an alternative to fiat currencies, criticizing the role of central banks. This could translate into policies that encourage the use of cryptocurrencies in Argentina, a country where inflation reached 140% in 2023.
Adoption in Argentina: In 2023, more than 10% of Argentines used cryptocurrencies as a refuge from the devaluation of the peso, according to a study by Chainalysis. Under Milei's mandate, this figure could increase with tax incentives or a friendly regulatory framework.
Realistic Analysis of Global Impact
Argentina as a Crypto Laboratory:
With inflation as the main driver, Argentina could become a case study for mass adoption of cryptocurrencies.
However, the size of the Argentine economy limits its global impact. Unless the United States adopts similar measures, the scope of these policies would be local.
The United States and its Global Role:
According to CoinGecko, the United States accounts for 25% of global crypto trading volume. If Trump were to shift his stance to a more pro-crypto stance, this could legitimize the sector and attract institutional investment.
However, current SEC regulations under Gary Gensler remain a major hurdle, and it is unclear whether a Republican administration would ease these restrictions.
Similar Cases:
El Salvador: Under the Nayib Bukele administration, Bitcoin became legal tender, but its global impact was limited due to the small size of its economy.
Hong Kong: The recent regulatory opening towards cryptocurrencies has shown that a favorable regulatory environment can attract significant investment.
Conclusion: Is a Crypto Boost Realistic with Trump and Milei?
While a Trump-Milei alliance could generate headlines and increase interest in cryptocurrencies, its impact will depend on several factors:
Trump: He would need to take a clearer and more favorable stance towards cryptocurrencies in the United States, something he has not done so far.
Milei: It could make Argentina a regional leader in crypto adoption, but the global impact would be limited by the magnitude of its economy.
Together, their policies could open doors for a broader dialogue on crypto regulation, but would not guarantee structural change without the support of other key global players.
Relevant Data to Support
Argentina: Ranked#15in the Global Crypto Adoption Index 2023 (Chainalysis).
United States: 80% of global institutional transactions originate in the US (CoinMetrics).
Global Crypto Market: As of November 2024, the total market capitalization was $1.8 trillion, with Bitcoin accounting for 49% of the total value (CoinGecko).
