12.31 Accurate Market Analysis @Everyone

Good morning, brothers. After the opening of the US stock market last night, there was a sharp decline

which triggered a drop in BTC, another risk asset.

Two trends in on-chain data:

(1) Stablecoin inflows are bottom-fishing.

(2) A total of over 5000 BTC flowed into Binance and Coinbase.

Regarding ETFs, BlackRock and FBTC data have not yet been released, while other ETFs saw outflows of $200 million.

Is there really no bull market? Let's analyze from several aspects.

This pullback has two reasons:

(1) A normal correction after a significant increase.

(2) Fluctuations following the release of expectations for Fed interest rate cuts.

However, there are several major trends:

(1) The Fed's rate-cutting cycle is still ongoing, with three potential rate cuts in 2025, possibly in March, June, and September.

(2) Trump is about to take office, and expectations for BTC to be included in national reserves are still present (regardless of whether it can be realized).

(3) In the long term, the consensus on BTC continues to grow:

3.1 After Trump takes office, US tariff policies exacerbate de-globalization, prompting other countries' central banks to buy BTC.

3.2 Expanding debt pressure affects the credibility of the dollar, enhancing the status of BTC.

Facing the 60-day moving average and a three-week adjustment for BTC,

it is expected to see a significant rebound after New Year's Day.

BTC will return to the $100,000 mark.