Regarding ETFs, on December 30, there was a net outflow of $426 million from Bitcoin spot ETFs and a net outflow of $55.41 million from Ethereum spot ETFs.
Short-term holders of Bitcoin have realized profits again at peak levels, similar to March of this year, indicating that a large amount of profit-taking is happening, which has led to price fluctuations and adjustments.
There are indeed signs that the current support is starting to shift downwards, as I mentioned yesterday. Since we are currently in a low liquidity phase, we should not focus on the shifting support for now; we will reevaluate this data after liquidity returns next week.
Overall, I have been emphasizing that everything revolves around BTC's trend cycle. In a rising trend, if you believe BTC will rise next, then buy and hold on tight.
The trend of rising markets is definitely not smooth sailing: there will definitely be a period of extreme FOMO, a period of high-level consolidation, then a period of continued rise, followed by a period of high-level fluctuations, and then a pullback, marking the end of a trend-driven rise.
When you think the trend of BTC is over, you can choose to sell. And right now, there is still potential for Q1 of next year. So, we must patiently wait through this temporary garbage time.
Whether altcoin season can come depends on the interest rate cut drama after Trump takes office. If Fed Chairman Powell remains stagnant, then the big story for altcoins might have to wait until 2026. And in 2025, there might not be enough hot money to support those grand narratives, like holding onto the coins you bought at the beginning of the year and still making a profit next year.
The future of altcoins is essentially a process of continuous unlocking and increasing circulation. Although some coins have soared in price after unlocking this year, we can't just focus on price; we also need to watch the trends in circulation. Pumping, unlocking, offloading, and then pumping again—this is their daily operation.
In the past two weeks, two major signals have emerged in the crypto circle that are hard for the average person to detect.
Firstly, Ethereum spot ETFs have maintained net inflows for five consecutive weeks, with a net inflow of $349 million last week. Meanwhile, Bitcoin spot ETFs had a net outflow of $388 million last week. Thirty years of ups and downs, Ethereum is starting to show stronger capital attraction than BTC.
Secondly, during the recent fluctuations and pullbacks of Bitcoin around 99,000—90,000, Ethereum has started to strengthen compared to Bitcoin, no longer like before where a stumble in Bitcoin would lead to chaos in ETH.
The strengthening of ETH is a significant event for the crypto circle. Although most altcoins have not yet started to soar, they are showing strong signs of bottoming out. Perhaps at this moment, the crypto wheel has begun to enter the chapter of altcoin season.
The biggest variable right now is the pace of interest rate cuts from the Fed, which will dominate the script for the crypto surge and bloodbath in 2025.
Tomorrow marks the end of the monthly and yearly lines.
Additionally, true liquidity will have to wait until the 6th when everyone in the U.S. is back, to see which direction the main forces choose.
We must be ready with our bullets; the opportunity for spot buying comes when prices are low enough, allowing for sufficient space when prices rise. The risk has already been released, so there’s no need to be afraid—just buy and wait for the increase.
Still the same saying: no rabbits, no hawks.
Finally, tomorrow is New Year's Day, so I wish everyone a Happy New Year in advance for the upcoming new year.
Next year, everyone will get rich—an average of A8!
