As the world's second-largest cryptocurrency, Ethereum (ETH) has been the focus of the market. Although its performance in 2024 lags behind Bitcoin (BTC) and some Layer-1 blockchains (such as Solana and SUI), market analysts generally believe that the start of 2025 could bring a bullish turning point for ETH. A series of market trends, technical analysis, and changes in the policy environment seem to be laying the groundwork for Ethereum's next leap.
First Quarter of 2025 - Ethereum Sees a Breakthrough
As of the end of 2024, Ethereum's year-to-date increase reaches 43%, but compared to Bitcoin's 115% growth, it seems slightly inferior. However, several analysts hold optimistic expectations for ETH's performance in the first quarter of 2025:
According to analyst Crypto Bullet's observations, a classic 'bullish flag' pattern has appeared on Ethereum's daily chart. This pattern is often seen as a precursor to further price increases. If this pattern continues, he predicts that ETH may reach $6,000 by March 2025.
Meanwhile, another analyst, Anup Dhungana, has identified an inverted head and shoulders pattern on Ethereum's weekly chart. This is a strong bullish signal, suggesting that prices may experience a significant rise. He further points out that Ethereum may dip to $2,800 in the short term, but is expected to surge to $8,000 by May 2025.
Senior analyst Quinten Francois emphasizes that the first quarter following the U.S. presidential election is usually a prime time for Ethereum's strong performance. If history repeats itself, the first quarter of 2025 could be a key period for ETH to set new records.
Staking and Supply Tightening - The Price Drivers of ETH
The report from Galaxy Research also adds a layer of certainty to ETH's prospects in 2025. The report notes that the staking rate of the Ethereum network could exceed 50% in the coming year, causing supply tightening. This supply dynamic could become a key factor driving ETH prices significantly higher:
Staking is a mechanism where holders lock up tokens to support network operations and earn rewards. As more investors stake ETH, the circulating supply will further decrease, and increasing market demand may drive prices up.
If the Trump administration provides a clearer regulatory framework for the cryptocurrency industry, such as allowing spot ETH ETPs (exchange-traded products) to stake held ETH, it will further attract institutional investors. Galaxy Research predicts that this favorable policy could easily push the price of ETH to surpass $5,500 by 2025.
The ETH/BTC trading pair and the possibility of altcoin season
It is worth noting that the ETH/BTC trading pair also shows a potential bullish trend. Currently, the price of this trading pair hovers around 0.03, but Galaxy Research predicts that as ETH continues to outperform BTC in the coming years, this trading pair could reach 0.06 by 2025. This increase would open the long-awaited 'altcoin season' for the market.
Technical analysis and policy trends in the market indicate limitless potential. As smart contract platforms continue to expand their applications in decentralized finance (DeFi) and non-fungible tokens (NFTs), Ethereum remains at the forefront of industry innovation.
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