Since the article released on the 26th by the badge indicated that there was a selling pressure demand of over 20,000 Bitcoins, predicting that the price would fall below the $90,000 mark and challenge the $85,000 support level, BTC has not shown any significant bullish performance. It has continuously pressed downward to challenge the $90,000 round figure. After issuing the warning, the price dropped by more than $5,000. Currently, the price is at $92,500, with continued support above the $90,000 mark, and the lowest pullback reached $91,530, showing no significant bullish trend. The main factor is still that the selling pressure has not been fully released, resulting in a lack of buying power to drive the price up. Right now, the price has reached the first support level at the $90,000 mark, and the daily line has also touched the bullish trend line of MA 60. This trend line determines the bullish direction of the bull market. If it continues to press below $90,000 and closes below that on the daily line, it means deviating from the bullish guidance direction, and the first phase of the bull market has come to an end. In the coming weeks, the market's rebound will take the bull market's top of $108,000 as the upper boundary, resulting in a pullback trend. Therefore, the upcoming daily closing pattern is crucial.
From the weekly perspective, the past two weeks have consistently closed in negative territory, maintaining a bearish trend. Based on historical bull market characteristics, the maximum retracement on the weekly level can approach the MA 60 line, corresponding to a price depth around 68,000 points. Afterward, it may oscillate for several weeks before launching a second bull market surge. From a technical perspective, challenging the $70,000 mark means testing the bull market peak of around $73,000 from mid-March, thus oscillating around this level for support. This type of trend is increasingly likely from a technical pattern.
As for why Bitcoin has exhibited such a trend, the badge believes that the main reason is short-term selling pressure. Due to the high price and in comparison to the past, the same amount of selling corresponds to a larger market value, requiring significantly more new funds to absorb the selling, making it much more difficult. Additionally, after the decline, market sentiment has turned cautious, leading to insufficient buying as many are waiting for lower prices to absorb chips. Thus, during the decline, the price tends to fall continuously.
Currently, for Bitcoin to break the downtrend, it needs to break through the $96,000 mark and return above the four-hour upward trend line. Afterward, the price will easily break through the $100,000 mark and continue to test the selling pressure situation at the new high of $108,353. Due to the panic emotions triggered by this drop, there will be significant selling pressure near the new high, leading to an exit and wait-and-see actions. The price will then likely show further short-term decline. The only way to change the situation is to break through the new high strongly, dispelling market's weak expectations, and the price will bravely head towards $150,000.
Since Bitcoin's trend cannot solely rely on technical patterns, one must consider market conditions, time nodes, and political factors. There are significant challenges in dealing with turning points. Based on years of historical trend analysis, from 2018 onwards, in the first week of the new year, Bitcoin has generally displayed a continuous bullish trend, leading to significant wave increases.
Therefore, currently, Bitcoin is supported above the $90,000 mark, and tomorrow will welcome the first day of the new year, which is also the month when the old Trump takes office. The market's enthusiasm for bullish speculation is fully justified and aligns with market expectations.
From historical trends, looking at the week following the New Year from 2018 to the first day of 2024, only the first week of 2022 saw a decline; the remaining six years after New Year have all shown upward movements. Among these, 2020, 2021, 2023, and 2024 all displayed several weeks of upward movements after the New Year.
Next, for cryptocurrency enthusiasts who prefer short-term operations, currently at $92,500, one can use the $90,000 mark as a defense level to increase long positions. If the price falls below the $90,000 mark, one should liquidate positions. If the price breaks through the $96,000 mark powerfully and breaks the downward trend, one can hold positions until around $104,000.
Risk warning: Due to significant market volatility, the reliability of directional predictions is reduced. It is not advisable for everyone to participate in large contract positions; it is better to focus on stable spot trading.
Must-read for cryptocurrency enthusiasts: The leading traders employ various strategies, making it easy for ordinary participants to be misled and incur losses. Stay updated with the badge to help you gain a higher perspective and pursue wealth in the crypto world with a professional outlook.$BTC 
