2024 is set to be a bumper year for Bitcoin, and this weekend on Reddit, the crypto community engaged in a heated debate about the cycle of leading digital currencies. Bitcoin enthusiasts are pondering whether the classic four-year halving cycle will lose its predictive magic.
From the foreseeable past to a revolutionary future, despite Bitcoin's countless ups and downs, what if we enter a hyper Bitcoinized state where countries begin to hide BTC in their reserves? Does this mean the current cycle won't collapse like the epic bull markets we've seen before? This has become a hot topic on the Reddit forum r/bitcoin this weekend. Redditors believe that the demand for Bitcoin is soaring, driven by large companies like exchange-traded funds (ETFs), MicroStrategy, and other companies and governments whispering—far exceeding the rate of new Bitcoin production.
Thus, Redditors propose that the traditional four-year halving cycle may no longer hold predictive power, as the surge in demand has taken center stage, overshadowing any effects of future supply reductions. This post sparked a series of responses to the idea and question, with the most popular comment from a user named "Denfaina" receiving over 270 votes. The declaration states, "The cycle is canceled, super Bitcoinization is underway." Essentially, super Bitcoinization envisions a world dominated by Bitcoin, replacing fiat currency as the preferred medium of exchange, store of value, and accounting currency.
Since Bitcoin first appeared and began to discover its value, it has undergone a rollercoaster ride. Bitcoin experienced bull runs from 2012 to 2013, 2016 to 2017, 2020 to 2021, and 2023 to 2024, a pattern that is predictable due to halving events that occur approximately every four years. At each peak, the price of BTC surged to new heights, but then plummeted by over 75% to 80% during the subsequent bear market. However, this bull market seems to have a different twist, with institutional interest from both the private and public sectors flooding into the stock market. Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are being utilized, and both El Salvador and Bhutan are now using BTC as part of their reserves, with other countries likely to follow suit soon.
Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis from Wyoming proposed that the United States should have its own Bitcoin strategic reserve. Some Bitcoin supporters hope that the Trump administration, with the backing of the new Congress, can make this a reality. If Trump does this, it could ignite the flames of global super Bitcoinization.
What if we no longer cling to the traditional four-year cycle and instead enter a super cycle driven by super Bitcoinization? Could BTC prices rise to heights previously only imagined? It may be possible that a drastic crash of 75% to 80% does not occur, and people might confidently believe that BTC below six figures will become a thing of the past. A group of Redditors completely agrees with this viewpoint, suggesting this could be the outcome of the current cycle.
Although some insist on the cyclical blueprint of Bitcoin's past, the evolving geopolitical landscape and growing institutional activity have led another Redditor to state: "If demand continues to dominate, the predictive power of halving will diminish, and we may see the narrative of the four-year cycle fade over time. In this sense, the importance of future halvings as price drivers will be less significant and more symbolic as a milestone of Bitcoin's deflationary design."
As the conversation around super Bitcoinization intensifies, the concept of unshakeable cycles is gradually fading away. Whether or not a super cycle occurs, market observers are still eager to witness the next moves of Bitcoin and any potential surprises in the future.
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