In this round of the bull market, Ethereum's performance can only be described as 'lackluster'. The community is anxious that ETH has still not been able to reach new highs this year, and even reaching the $4,000 mark seems challenging.
In this round of the bull market, the performance of Ethereum, the largest public chain, has not met market expectations, which is clearly reflected in the native token ETH, which has yet to break the previous bull market high and even seems to struggle to reach the $4,000 mark.
In contrast, Bitcoin, BNB, and SOL have all reached their previous bull market highs in this round of the bull market. Among them, Bitcoin has even surpassed the $100,000 mark.
Three major reasons for Ethereum to break new highs next year
Against this backdrop, cryptocurrency trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio, who has over 110,000 followers on X, tweeted yesterday (29th) that there are three reasons why Ethereum will be the biggest beneficiary in the first quarter of 2025:
1. Ethereum's price increase significantly lags behind: Bitcoin (BTC) has risen 40% from its previous all-time high (ATH), while Ethereum (ETH) remains 30% below its historical peak. Although this in itself does not hold much indicative meaning, both have ETF products, and to the general public, ETH appears cheaper than BTC, making it easier to be perceived as having upward potential.
2. Trump's pro-crypto policies: The Trump administration has always been friendly towards assets with practicality and smart contract relevance. We have seen some DeFi assets (like AAVE and UNI) perform well due to market expectations, but the biggest beneficiary remains Ethereum. Trump's WLFI has not ventured into the Solana space but continues to choose Ethereum-based assets, and Eugene believes this trend will persist.
3. Development of the Base ecosystem: Among all Ethereum Layer 2 networks, Base is the standout chain this year. Leveraging Coinbase's native distribution channels and the AI agent ecosystem driven by Virtuals, Base offers a value proposition very similar to Solana and can undoubtedly be classified as a competitor. Since Base itself does not have its own token, the natural demand for ETH as an underlying asset will increase, bringing more positive inflows as ecosystem activity grows.
Driven by these three major factors, Eugene expects ETH to potentially break the $4,000 mark as early as January next year and is hopeful for a historical peak in the first quarter.
The market is still in the mid-stage of the bull market
Moreover, Eugene also predicts three major areas that will continue to thrive next year, including:
AI Agent;
Utility fee generating tokens
Tokens with ETF potential
At the same time, Eugene also expressed his views on the overall market cycle in 2025:
In terms of the peak of the cyclical cycle, I believe that most of 2025 will resemble 2023 or 2024. We will see a reevaluation in certain sectors, followed by significant PvP. Eventually, one of these rebounds will reach a peak, but I think we are still far from that stage.
It is worth noting that we are currently in the mid-stage of the market cycle, and achieving good performance does not necessarily require 'counter-trend' operations. In fact, following the current momentum trend may be the simplest way to profit compared to trying to uncover new trends that have yet to take off.
The next counter-trend decision will be to determine the timing of the global market peak. When I believe the timing is right, I will clearly express my views.
