From the perspective of wave theory, the pullback since December 17 actually corresponds to the pullback from January 11, 2024 to January 23, 2024, which are the fourth sub-waves of the third and fifth major waves respectively.
Previously, the fourth sub-wave of the third major wave lasted for 12 days, and the pullback from the fourth sub-wave of the fifth major wave has lasted for 13 days.
From the perspective of the relationship between volume and price, the speed of Bitcoin's three downward explorations is getting slower and slower, and the trading volume is getting smaller and smaller, which shows that the selling pressure is getting weaker and weaker, and Bitcoin is indeed likely to have completed the adjustment.
However, the pullback this time is only 15%, which is significantly smaller than the pullback of the fourth sub-wave of the third major wave. This is probably because Trump is about to take office, and under the influence of market expectations, the selling pressure is weakened and the buying pressure is strengthened.
Of course, it cannot be completely ruled out that before the adjustment ends, Bitcoin will fall below the low point of December 20 to shake out the warehouse.
Next, we need to continue to pay attention to the inflow and outflow of funds of Bitcoin ETF. If the continuous large net outflow in the previous period turns into a continuous large net inflow, the possibility of falling below the 20-day low will be significantly reduced. If the Bitcoin ETF still continues to have large net outflows, the possibility of falling below the 20-day low will increase significantly.
