According to the Financial Associated Press on December 30 (editor Liu Rui), this year, cryptocurrencies have undoubtedly been one of the "bullish" investment varieties: CoinMarketCap data shows that the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies rose from $1.65 trillion at the beginning of the year to $3.7 trillion, with Bitcoin's price soaring from $37,700 last December to a historical high of $106,000.
However, if history is any guide, Bitcoin may peak within the next two to three weeks, which means Bitcoin bulls may need to act quickly to lock in profits.
Could Bitcoin peak in two weeks?
According to data from research firm K33, Bitcoin will reach an all-time high in mid-January, just before the inauguration of U.S. President-elect Trump.
K33's statistical analysis indicates that, on average, there are 318 days between the first peak and the last peak of a cryptocurrency cycle. The initial peak of the current cycle occurred on March 5 this year, suggesting that the last peak of the current cycle could occur on January 17 next year. This date coincidentally is close to Trump's inauguration on January 20.
In fact, Trump's victory in the election coincidentally became a catalyst for Bitcoin's significant rise at the end of this year. As the "most pro-cryptocurrency president in history," Trump has made several promises that are favorable to Bitcoin—such as including Bitcoin in the national reserves. These factors have helped Bitcoin's price break through the six-figure milestone for the first time.
However, K33 points out that as the time approaches for Trump to actually take office, cryptocurrency investors are likely to find their hopes dashed:
"The market is highly likely to have unrealistic expectations about the speed of policy changes and overestimate the impact of the inauguration... We expect the current Bitcoin rally to peak in mid-January before Trump's inauguration and believe that area is a natural zone to reduce risk and realize short-term profits," wrote K33 research director Vetle Lunde in a December report.
Other analyses show similar results
Another technical analyst familiar with Bitcoin's historical cycles, Adrian Zduńczyk, shares a similar view. He had previously warned to prepare for Bitcoin's upcoming pullback. He predicts that the price adjustment for Bitcoin will start between the end of January and February, with a magnitude of 15% to 30%, before potentially entering another bull market.
Meanwhile, another study by data analytics firm CCData this month also indicates that Bitcoin's price will peak next year, although they predict differing timing for the pullback. According to the company, Bitcoin typically peaks 371 to 546 days after the most recent "halving" event, with the last halving occurring in April this year.
The company stated: "This estimate provides two scenarios: one is the base scenario, which expects Bitcoin to peak in early Q2 next year, and the other is the bull market scenario, which anticipates the asset's highest price will peak in November next year."
The market is still not short of bulls
However, regardless of the outcome in January next year, there are still a large number of people in the market who remain optimistic about the trend of cryptocurrencies next year, with predictions for Bitcoin's year-end price ranging from $200,000 to $500,000, thanks to continued institutional adoption, loose regulation, and the macroeconomic background, as well as the broad rebound throughout the cryptocurrency space.
Even CCData, which warns of a potential pullback in Bitcoin, predicts that under basic circumstances, Bitcoin could reach $155,000. If a bull market occurs, Bitcoin will touch $195,000.
K33 also acknowledges that as Bitcoin's market capitalization grows larger, the so-called "four-year price cycle" may gradually lose relevance.
"The relative impact of the halving is becoming less significant, and Bitcoin is being adopted on an institutional level. While Bitcoin's bubbles and downturns will still be a common feature, they arise from new developments," K33 said.
As for the outcome, we can only wait and see; the market is unpredictable, and we can only respond randomly, adapting as we go!
