#加密市场调整
If there's a big drop in January, let's spit in Powell's face together!
Who pushed Bitcoin from 108,000 to a low of 92,000 on December 18, and has not returned to the previous high? Remember it clearly... Powell.
Why does a single word from the Chairman of the Federal Reserve cause Bitcoin to crash?
The principle is not complex; the three driving forces behind Bitcoin are: 'spot ETF, halving, interest rate cuts'. The first two have already happened, and only the interest rate cuts are still in progress.
Strictly speaking, Bitcoin's movement is strongly correlated with the real yield on U.S. Treasury bonds (real yield = nominal yield - inflation rate). Only when the real yield on U.S. Treasury bonds decreases will funds shift from traditional safe assets like U.S. Treasuries to high-volatility assets like Bitcoin. In plain terms, for many large funds like pensions, if there's a risk-free annual return of over 5% available, old money will definitely not allocate too much to risky assets like Bitcoin.
Unless the real yield on U.S. Treasuries drops, they will change their allocation to inject funds and liquidity into risk assets like the B-circle. Only then might the B-circle see a flood of wealth!
However, the recent facts are harsh: U.S. Treasury yields have not decreased at all; they have been rising like they took a strength-boosting pill, breaking hearts.
Then, as a bellwether for U.S. Treasuries, the Federal Reserve actually further fueled the fire. On December 18, the Federal Reserve lowered its interest rate cut forecast, suggesting only two more rate cuts in 2025, while in September, it hinted at four cuts—cutting it in half directly! The futures market currently expects the federal funds rate to be around 4% by the end of next year, which means it might not even reach two cuts!
According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's Federal Reserve observation tool data, traders estimate there is an 88% chance the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged in January. In other words, the best-case scenario is to hold steady. If Powell continues to make 'hawkish' statements that suppress market expectations for rate cuts, then get ready for a waterfall. If you tell me Bitcoin will drop to 8, I would think that's conservative.
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