Recently, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives boldly raised Apple's target price to $325, setting the highest expectation on Wall Street, saying that Apple is standing on the threshold of the "golden growth era" driven by artificial intelligence. However, as Apple's stock price has risen 35% this year and its market value is approaching $4 trillion, market differences have become increasingly obvious: Is this a historic opportunity brought about by technological innovation, or a precursor to a high valuation bubble?

Artificial intelligence and services: Apple's twin engines of growth
Ives pointed out that Apple's latest AI features, including the integration of ChatGPT built into the operating system, are starting a new iPhone upgrade cycle and will drive billions of dollars in annual revenue for its services business. Wedbush analyzed that Apple's services business is currently valued at $2 trillion, and the potential for iPhone upgrades is even greater.

Data shows that about 300 million iPhones in the world have not been upgraded for more than four years, of which 100 million phones in the Chinese market will enter the upgrade window period in 2025. Apple is expected to sell more than 240 million iPhones in fiscal 2025, a figure that will set a new record in the company's history.

At the same time, Apple, whose AI strategy is gradually taking shape, is also believed to completely rewrite the consumer growth story in the next few years. "Rome was not built in a day, and neither was Apple's AI strategy, but the results of these efforts will gradually emerge," Ives emphasized.

Suspense and Differences in Market Value Breakthrough
Despite Wedbush's bullishness, the market is not entirely optimistic. BTIG strategist Johnathan Krinsky warned that Apple's rare five-week gain of more than 2% may lay the groundwork for a stock price correction in the next month. He reminded investors that historically, Apple's short-term returns tend to be negative after similar strong gains.

In addition, analysts are also cautious about the possibility of Apple's market value exceeding $4 trillion. Apple's current stock price needs to break through $264.623 per share to achieve this milestone, and investors' concerns about high valuation risks may intensify in the early new year.

Bubble or opportunity? Focus on future trends
Apple's technological innovation and market position have undoubtedly made it the focus of much attention. However, in an environment full of uncertainty in the global economy, investors need to remain vigilant against short-term fluctuations.

In the future, the commercialization level of AI applications, the iPhone upgrade cycle, and global macroeconomic policies will all become key factors in determining whether Apple’s stock price can continue to rise.

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