Although Binance Alpha's coin selection has a high expectation ability, allowing most tokens to see a price increase of over 50% after launch, a considerable number of tokens failed to maintain their upward trend and even incurred losses. Particularly in the recent Phase Five and Phase Six, the price fluctuations are minimal. Therefore, this article examines Binance's Alpha coin launch situation from a data perspective.

Phase One

KOMA, Cheems, APX, ai16z, AIXBT

Phase Two

CKP, GEAR, SD, SYRUP, FARTCOIN

Phase Three

FROG, AICell, CGPT, CLANKER, LUNAI, URO

RIF, GRIFFAIN, TERMINUS, MONKY

Phase Four

BANANA, KOGE, BOB, PSTAKE, GNON, Shoggoth, LUCE, ODOS

Phase Five

MGP, ZEREBRO, COOKIE, WHALES, ORDER

Phase Six

YNE, GOUT, GEL, UFD, GAME

Coin selection logic

A total of 38 coins, among which:

  • 10 Meme coins

  • 2 Desci coins

  • 12 Defi coins

  • 14 AI Agent coins

The main tokens launched are still centered around Meme + Defi + AI Agent, with the most launched track being Defi, particularly with many LSD tokens.

The market capitalization is mainly in the range of 0-100m, with tokens in the 0-50m range accounting for over 30%.

Price fluctuation

Left chart: When announced for launch, more than half of the tokens will see a price increase of over 50%, proving that Binance has a strong expectation ability, but only a few tokens can double or reach above that.

Right chart: However, as of now (December 24, 19:00), nearly 1/5 of the tokens are at a loss, it is noteworthy that more than 1/5 of the tokens can maintain at least a 50% price increase.

Relationship between FDV and price fluctuation

  • High FDV coins: FARTCOIN and ai16z's FDV reached 866m and 730m respectively, but their current price fluctuations are low (1.20% and -9.50% respectively), indicating that high FDV coins may face significant growth pressure.

  • Low FDV coins: Coins with lower FDV are more likely to experience high price fluctuations, such as BOB (FDV 22m, fluctuation 94.50%) and FROG (FDV 23m, fluctuation 120.70%).

Summary

Analysis by phase

  • Phase One and Phase Two: Price fluctuations are considerable, with some coins performing strongly.

  • Phase Three and Phase Four: Several high-fluctuation coins appeared (such as Shoggoth and GNON), with low FDV coins demonstrating strong explosive power during this phase.

  • Phase Five and Phase Six: Price fluctuations tend to stabilize, the market gradually loses charm, volatility decreases, and some tokens experience price drops.

Analysis by track

  • Meme-type tokens fluctuate significantly and are suitable for short-term speculation.

  • AI Agent type tokens dominate the mainstream, but performance is differentiated, requiring a combination of FDV and market sentiment to select potential coins.

  • DeFi type tokens show relatively stable growth, but some coins still present significant opportunities.

Appendix: Data analysis table for Phase Six