The final drop, if it happens, will probably be around Q2 to Q3 of next year, which is after April. If a recession occurs, then interest rates could quickly drop to 0, and to rescue the economy, there will be QE, which means more money supply. So by the end of 2025 to 2026, it will be a replay of the end of 2020 to 2021. Therefore, by then, in 2026, there will be a significant bull market. It will be a season of widespread increases in the market. During a recession, it will definitely be a time to position oneself. During FOMO, it will be very FOMO, and during panic, it will also be extremely panicked; the drop during this recession can be referenced to the historical 312. If there is no recession after Q2 of next year and a soft landing is achieved, then interest rates (currently at 4.5) may still remain high even if they are cut one, two, or three times next year. There won't be more money supply; at most, it will just be an expansion after the end of balance sheet reduction. This is quite complex; the balance sheet reduction hasn’t ended, and we don’t know where the expansion will take place. We also need to observe some economic policies after Trump takes office. To put it bluntly, in this situation, there will be a season of rises, but it will definitely not be as significant as the monetary easing described above. This situation will be very taxing. We need to pay attention to macroeconomic indicators. Regardless, Q1 of next year is something to look forward to, and then starting in April, we need to see how things unfold. Friends, including myself and perhaps everyone in crypto, of course, hope for a recession or a black swan event. But in reality, we still need to consider the actual situation. Finally, the four-year bull-bear cycle. This may slowly change again, and we need to embrace change. Pay attention to macro conditions, liquidity conditions, BTC's narrative policy situation, etc. Let’s wait and see. #灰度提交Horizen信托文件 #“圣诞老人行情”再现 #2025加密趋势预测 #2025有哪些关键叙事？ #币安Alpha第7批项目公布