Today's Major Events
1. After obtaining approval from the Israeli Securities Authority (ISA), six mutual funds tracking Bitcoin prices will officially launch in Israel next week. These six companies will operate on the same day, December 31, provided by Migdal Capital Markets, More, Ayalon, Phoenix Investment, Meitav, and IBI, with management fees ranging from 1.5% to 0.25%, one of which will adopt active management in an attempt to outperform Bitcoin's performance.
2. Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov stated on Wednesday that changes in Russian legislation allow businesses to use Bitcoin and other digital currencies for international payments. This year, Russia allowed the use of cryptocurrencies in foreign trade and took measures to legalize cryptocurrency mining, including Bitcoin. Siluanov stated in an interview with Russia 24 TV channel: "As part of the experimental regime, we can use Bitcoin mined in Russia (for foreign trade transactions)."
3. Data from the Bank of Korea shows that as of the end of November, the total number of cryptocurrency investors in South Korea has surpassed 15.59 million for the first time, accounting for more than 30% of the national population, with total assets reaching 102.6 trillion won (approximately $79 billion), and daily trading volume approaching the total of the domestic stock market. Fueled by expectations of crypto-friendly policies following Trump's election as U.S. president, Bitcoin prices rose nearly 35% in November, significantly boosting activity in the South Korean crypto market. Among the five major exchanges, the average amount held per investor reached 6.58 million won (approximately $5,070), with 610,000 new investors added in November. Additionally, the deposits not invested in the market by crypto exchanges also increased to 8.8 trillion won (approximately $6 billion).
4. The founder of ETHDenver stated: "Trump's focus on deregulation and promoting economic growth may create ideal conditions for the flourishing of DeFi. That said, we need policies that protect innovation while allowing builders to experiment without fear." Jawad Ashraf, CEO of Web3 company Vanar, also mentioned that a more direct impact on DeFi is that the new U.S. government may provide clearer regulations on whether crypto tokens qualify as financial securities. This will lead to more regulated implementations and create legal pathways for paying protocol revenue to token holders in the form of dividends.
II. Market Data
1. Yesterday, the Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net outflow of $338 million, while the Ethereum spot ETF saw a net inflow of $53.54 million.
(Recent inflows into Ethereum ETFs may signal potential re-entry opportunities.)
2. The total trading volume on Coinbase International exceeded $119 billion last week, setting a new historical high. The total for the week was 124% higher than the previous week, and the daily average for the past week was 164% higher than the daily average of the week before. In November, the daily average trading volume on Coinbase International was only $2.5 billion. By December, the exchange's daily average trading volume approached $10 billion. The top five trading pairs on Coinbase International include perpetual futures of BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, and DOGE, making up 99.8% of the total trading volume on the exchange. BTC-PERP accounted for 57% of the total trading volume, followed by ETH-PERP at 34%.
3. The up-and-coming CEX platforms Bitget and Gateio have been quietly hitting new highs. Yesterday, the market cap of BGB rose to 23rd in the cryptocurrency rankings, with a circulating market cap of $8.12 billion and a total market cap of $11.61 billion. BGB briefly touched $5.89 USDT, currently quoted at $5.81, up nearly 18.34% in 24 hours, and up 228.13% in the past month, setting new historical highs.
Coinglass data shows that the top three centralized exchanges by 24-hour Bitcoin contract trading volume are Binance, Bitget, and Coinbase, with Binance at $23.35 billion, Bitget at $15.95 billion, and Coinbase at $12.61 billion. In terms of Ethereum contract trading volume, Bitget's 24-hour contract trading volume reached $5.29 billion, ranking third. This suggests that Bitget's market share has already reached the current level; the rise of platform tokens is like justice, just delayed, not absent.
Meanwhile, Gate platform token GT broke through $14, reaching a high of $14.5, currently quoted at $14.499, continuing to set new historical highs, with a 24-hour increase expanding to 5.56%.
4. The proportion of Runes transactions on the Bitcoin network has fallen to a new low, accounting for only 1.67% of daily transactions, a significant decline from its earlier dominance this year. The decrease in Runes activity aligns with broader market dynamics and shifts in investor focus: Bitcoin price volatility has diverted attention away from experimental protocols like Runes and Ordinals, which are typically viewed as high-risk applications; other areas such as AI agents, meme coins, and Ethereum NFTs have captured market share, potentially leading to decreased interest in Bitcoin-based token protocols. However, as Bitcoin prices stabilize, history shows that attention may return to ecological projects like Runes and Ordinals. According to HTX market data, RUNECOIN rose over 25% in 24 hours, currently quoted at $0.0025.
III. Industry-Related Knowledge
During the Christmas holiday, traditional markets went into recess, but the crypto market saw significant gains driven by Bitcoin. The current maximum pain point for BTC options is $84,000, while for ETH, it is $3,000. However, from the market performance, this year's annual maximum pain point will likely become ineffective, similar to previous years. Additionally, short-term implied volatility (IV) has continued to decline from yesterday, with market makers nearing the end of their rolling positions, and it is expected that IV will remain stable before the end of the year.
During the Christmas holiday to the end of the year delivery period, BTC market liquidity is poor, requiring little momentum for price fluctuations, and may continue to show volatility. However, some altcoins no longer follow BTC's ups and downs, beginning to show independent trends. Let's first look at the currently active altcoins:
UXLINK once surged past $3.8, now retreating to $3.47, up over 90% in 24 hours.
COW broke through $1.2, currently quoted at $1.201, with a 24-hour increase of 46.58%;
VITA broke through $6.58 on-chain to create a new historical high, currently quoted at $6.586, with a 24-hour increase of 20.61%, and a market cap of approximately $166 million.
Affected by the BIO airdrop news, RIF briefly rose 25%, now quoted at $0.067; URO briefly rose 15%, now quoted at $0.075. Pump Science stated that URO and RIF holders will receive the BIO airdrop.
The current altcoin season index is 47. Once liquidity returns after the holidays, market activity typically heats up again. It is expected that influenced by Trump's support, funds will continue to actively invest in the crypto industry. BTC is experiencing a correction, while altcoins are showing steady growth — this is the first sign of the altcoin season arriving. A large capital rebalancing towards altcoins yesterday witnessed this.
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