On Wednesday, U.S. stock indices are closed. On Tuesday, the Nasdaq rose 1.3%, the S&P 500 rose 1.1%, and the Dow Jones rose 0.9%. The Nasdaq index rose again above 20,000 points (which fell to 19,168 points last week). Apple's stock price rose more than 1%, with a latest market value exceeding $3.9 trillion; regarding the Fed's neutral rate: six members of the Federal Reserve believe that rates are close to the neutral rate, which may imply only a further reduction of 50 to 75 basis points. Eight members, possibly including Powell, believe that the neutral rate is much lower, possibly at 3% or lower (currently 4.25-4.5%). Fed's Williams stated: perhaps the neutral rate is slightly higher than previously thought, but still far below today's levels.

Back to the topic:

CNBC reported that the Federal Reserve announced in a statement that it plans to adjust the stress tests for banks in the U.S., but did not specify the specific adjustments to the annual stress test framework. These adjustments may not be enough to alleviate banks' concerns over heavy capital requirements. Several large banks are planning to sue the Fed over the annual bank stress tests, with plaintiffs including the Bank Policy Institute, which represents large banks such as JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs, as well as the American Bankers Association, Ohio Bankers League, Ohio Chamber of Commerce, and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. The lawsuit aims to "address long-standing legal violations by mandating public input on the stress testing process." MicroStrategy submitted a voting proposal to shareholders, increasing the authorized number of Class A common shares from 330 million to 10.33 billion, which will be voted on in 2025 in Tysons Corner, Virginia. As of December 24, Australia's Monochrome spot BTC ETF held 261 BTC. According to the Korean Yonhap News Agency, data from the Korean National Assembly's Finance Committee shows that as of the end of November 2024, the number of cryptocurrency investors in South Korea has exceeded 15 million for the first time, reaching 15.59 million, an increase of 610,000 from October. The total market value of investors' holdings reached 102.6 trillion Korean won (approximately $79 billion), with an average holding of about 6.58 million Korean won (approximately $5,070). Market analysts believe that Trump's support for the cryptocurrency industry has driven enthusiasm among Korean investors.

As of December 24, BTC is up 113% in 2024. According to the Hashrate Index and Google Finance data, only 7 out of 25 listed mining companies have achieved positive returns. QCP Capital states that all eyes are on a massive expiration this Friday, when nearly $20 billion in nominal value of BTC and ETH options will expire, as the market continues to digest the Fed's more hawkish stance, which is reinforced by the impulse to lock in profits, especially after a strong year. Matrixport indicated that BTC's recent adjustment suggests a pullback after a 40% increase, consistent with past cycles. In a bull market, a 10% to 20% pullback from recent highs often forms an ideal entry zone, as long as prices remain within the -20% pullback range and continue the current cycle's trend, laying a solid foundation for a new round of increases in 2025. K33 Research Director Vetle Lunde stated that if estimated based on previous cycle peak prices, BTC could reach a peak of $146,000 in this cycle; when using past market capitalization as a reference, BTC could hit a peak of $212,500 in this cycle. Combining data from BTC's last three cycles, the average duration from the first to the last historical high in each cycle is 318 days; if the average duration of previous cycles repeats, a new peak may be seen on January 17, 2025.

On December 25, the U.S. spot BTC ETF saw an outflow of $340 million. The ETH spot ETF saw an inflow of $53.54 million. The price of BTC was $0.25 on Christmas in 2010, and on December 25, 2024, the price of BTC reached $99,000. The U.S. BTC spot ETF holdings exceeded 1.13 million BTC, with BlackRock leading with 553,000 BTC; Fidelity and Grayscale each hold about 200,000 BTC. Analyst Yuya Hasegawa elaborated on three key factors influencing the crypto market in 2025: first, Trump's cryptocurrency policy direction will dominate market sentiment, with his proposed strategic BTC reserve plan and progress in appointing pro-crypto nominees expected to directly affect price trends. Second, the Fed's monetary policy will continue to impact the crypto market; loose monetary policy has historically benefited BTC prices, while the opposite would have a negative effect. Third, the U.S. government debt issue may become a new market focus; a high-interest rate environment will increase the burden of U.S. government debt. If concerns about U.S. debt sustainability arise and the U.S. strategic BTC reserve plan is successfully implemented, BTC's safe-haven attributes will receive more attention, potentially driving its valuation further up. JPMorgan stated in its outlook: while investors may shortsightedly focus on next year's rate cut pace and magnitude, they should step back and recognize that the Fed will still be in a rate-cutting mode in 2025. Morgan Stanley believes that the U.S. economic growth faces downside risks, and investors will encounter an unexpected bull market; the company expects the Fed's rate cut pace to be faster than other banks, predicting that the 10-year Treasury yield will drop to 3.55% (currently 4.59%) by December next year.

The median forecast from 12 strategists is that the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield will decrease by about 50 basis points to 3.75% (currently 4.33%) in a year. Regarding the neutral rate: six members of the Federal Reserve believe that rates are close to the neutral rate, which may imply only a further reduction of 50 to 75 basis points. Eight members, possibly including Powell, believe that the neutral rate is much lower, possibly at 3% or lower (currently 4.25-4.5%). Powell's key ally Williams stated: perhaps the neutral rate is slightly higher than previously thought, but still far below today's levels. Fed's Daly believes: the Fed's recalibration process is complete, and it is now back to using data to influence upcoming forecasts and determine how many rate cuts will occur next year; the Fed has not "stopped cutting rates" but has merely slowed the pace of adjustments. A smaller group believes there is more room for rate cuts. During Christmas, U.S. stock indices are closed. Analyst Ryan Lee stated that after the Christmas holiday, liquidity will recover, and the price of BTC may rebound to above $105,000; the current downtrend is a natural symptom of insufficient holiday liquidity. After Christmas, market activity typically warms up again, and it is expected that influenced by Trump's support, funds will continue to actively invest in the crypto industry. The Fed's expectations for rate cuts are not fixed, with expectations changing almost every time there is a meeting.

At the beginning of 2023 and the beginning of 2024, there were market booms due to rate cut expectations. At the beginning of 2024, the market expected the Fed to cut rates 6 times this year. In April, rate cut expectations cooled; in August, rate cut expectations warmed; in September, the first rate cut of 50 basis points was initiated, and a total of 100 basis points were cut in three meetings at the end of the year. Global economic analysis company BCA Research expects U.S. PCE inflation to drop to 2.5% by early 2025, as core PCE inflation resumes its downward trend alongside a weak job market, necessitating more than 50 basis points of easing. On Wednesday, U.S. stock indices are closed. On Tuesday, the Nasdaq rose 1.3%, the S&P 500 rose 1.1%, the Dow Jones rose 0.9%, and the Nasdaq index rose again above 20,000 points (which fell to 19,168 points last week). The crypto market followed suit, with BTC reaching $99,000. As the new year approaches, Bitcoin experienced a downward washout and is slowly recovering. Recently, many veteran analysts have been making predictions about an altcoin season, and the old man believes their predictions are correct. At the beginning of the new year, institutions will adjust their positions, and during the capital rotation period, opportunities will arise for other cryptocurrencies. Next year is expected to be a continuation of the bull market.