Bitcoin’s New Year’s Eve price action over the last 10 years can help inform predictions for this year.
Bitcoin (BTC) fell to its lowest level since late November, dashing hopes of a “Santa Claus rally” that traditionally follows market peaks in the years ahead.
On the evening of December 23, the Bitcoin price fell to a four-week low of $92,442, marking a 14.5% correction from the all-time high of $108,000 on December 17.
Although it briefly recovered and regained $95,000, it was seen to retreat to $94,000 again on the morning of December 24. Bitcoin's loss in the last week exceeded 11%.
What happened to the Bitcoin price late last year?
Historically, crypto markets have generally performed well during the holiday season during bull seasons. However, Bitcoin’s poor December this year has eliminated expectations for a price increase from late December to early January, known as the “Christmas rally.”
Crypto trader Mister Crypto has evaluated Bitcoin’s performance during the holiday season in previous years, noting that major rallies occurred during the Christmas and New Year periods between 2016 and 2020. These were the years before the peak of the market cycles.
According to a study published by CoinGecko on December 13, between 2014 and 2023, crypto markets experienced 10 post-Christmas rallies, with total market value increasing between 0.7% and 11.8%.
The periods in question generally cover the one-week period between December 27 and January 2.
However, there has been no rally since the peak of the 2021 market cycle. Bitcoin fell by about 26% from its peak of $69,000 on Christmas Day that year, and that decline continued throughout 2022.
Experts emphasized that 2021 was a cycle peak year, but 2025 is expected to be a new cycle peak year. This prediction is based on the pattern that shows that Bitcoin has been moving in four-year cycles since its inception.
With approximately $18 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH) options contracts set to expire on December 27, volatility in crypto markets is expected to increase.
On the other hand, Bitcoin’s social sentiment fell to its lowest level of the year on December 22. This is considered a possible recovery signal.
Stay tuned for new information
