Regarding the ETF, in the past four trading days, capital from the U.S. spot BTC ETF has continued to flow out, reaching $1.51 billion. During this period, the largest outflow was from FBTC, totaling $510 million; followed by ARKB, which had an inflow of $286 million.
In terms of market conditions, Bitcoin is rebounding on low volume, which is not a healthy trend. Overall market demand is insufficient, and we need to observe the volume situation in the future. If low volume continues, it will be difficult to maintain the rebound trend. Today, U.S. stocks are closed, and the market is not very volatile; the real supply and demand situation will only show after U.S. stocks reopen.
Regarding altcoins, there is a correlated trend, with capital recovering somewhat, but the overall market enthusiasm for speculation is not high, and the profit effect is weak, primarily based on correlation.
Are there still buying opportunities?
There may be, and here's why. Currently, BTC has rebounded to $98,000. Starting on the 23rd, ETH did not follow the drop, and last night BTC surged. We are now at a time of extremely low liquidity, and tonight U.S. stocks are closed. It will be after New Year’s Day that real liquidity returns. If there is a downturn during this time, a slight negative news could crash BTC, and if altcoins follow suit, that would be a buying opportunity. However, whether BTC will crash depends on market sentiment. After New Year’s Day, speculation will start around the new president's inauguration. The real trend should emerge between mid-January and early March. So, before mid-January, we should see if the backers will provide opportunities again. To be honest, I can't say for sure.
Will the upcoming trend surely arrive as expected?
It’s highly probable, but only if the U.S. economy doesn't have issues, Trump isn't assassinated, and Japan doesn't stir trouble—these events have a very low probability. The basic trend is sound. Moreover, historical data shows that the stock and crypto markets perform well within the hundred days after a new U.S. president takes office. This is based on historical data, after all, a new official is in charge.
The necessary prerequisites for the altcoin season
BTC's rise maintains sentiment, while ETH's continued sharp increase is a signal of capital. It is especially important for these increases to persist on weekdays, otherwise there could be issues.
Many believe the altcoin season has arrived, in reality, some altcoins have already shown gains exceeding those of Bitcoin and Ethereum. However, whether we have truly entered the altcoin season requires further market observation.
But this is just a simple timeline; the logic supporting our current position in the altcoin season is completely insufficient, so let's not follow the crowd.
Personally, I believe the altcoin season may arrive, but it should start next month. Therefore, we can prioritize bottom-fishing altcoins during this phase, but we need more patience to wait.
During the Christmas period, we will still mainly observe that the overall market remains in wide fluctuations, which will give us another opportunity to bottom-fish altcoins; please make the most of this opportunity.
Currently, the altcoin index is at 49, which is neither particularly low nor particularly high. Therefore, whether we enter the altcoin season still requires time to observe. Historical experience suggests that it is rare for the altcoin index to rebound directly after falling from a high position; usually, further increases in Bitcoin are needed to trigger an altcoin surge.
Finally
Starting today, it is the time of lowest liquidity, even lower than the usual weekends. The upcoming trends will reflect the value of sentiment even more, especially that of Asian investors, which could guide the price direction in the next two days.
In the short term, the market may struggle to see large-scale buying, with insufficient liquidity in the spot market. However, the continuous accumulation of long positions in the futures market may drive prices up. For altcoins, although some have shown strong performance, the real altcoin season may take longer to verify, especially regarding whether Bitcoin's breakout potential can be effectively unleashed.
