The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model predicts that U.S. GDP growth for the fourth quarter will be 3.1%, unchanged from the previous estimate of 3.1%.
With Christmas approaching, U.S. stocks will close early on Tuesday night, three hours ahead, at 2:00 AM Beijing time on December 25, and the market will be closed all day on Wednesday (December 26).
A report from the Canadian Business Economic Association states that U.S. inflation is likely to be lower than the Federal Reserve's forecast for 2025. They stated: 'Therefore, more than 50 basis points of easing policy will be needed,' while the median forecast for interest rates by the Federal Reserve in 2025 is only a 50 basis point cut.
Citi's latest research report states that during the Federal Reserve's pause on interest rate cuts, U.S. stocks typically perform well, but the sustainability of the rise depends on whether economic weakness leads to a restart of policy easing. U.S. Treasury rates usually rise at the pause or end of a cycle; for the dollar, if the rate cuts are merely paused, the dollar performs sideways.
Due to the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on monetary policy outlook, and U.S. Treasury yields reaching a six-month high, the U.S. dollar remains strong. The dollar index opened higher on Tuesday and fluctuated at high levels, currently up 0.17%, reporting 108.2220.
The U.S. dollar is strong, spot gold opened low and rose before retreating, now down 0.11%, reporting $2,612.420 per ounce. Spot silver fluctuated lower, now down 0.22%, reporting $29.617 per ounce.
Bank of America expects that although gold prices are likely to break through $3,000 per ounce, a consolidation correction will be needed in the first half of 2025. In January 2025, Trump will take office as President of the United States, and his policy proposals bring significant uncertainty to the global economic outlook.
The crude oil futures market rebounded across the board, with Buffett recently increasing his stake by 8.9 million shares in Occidental Petroleum. This move reflects Buffett's confidence in the long-term prospects of the oil industry and indirectly affects global investment sentiment in the oil market. Brent crude futures rose 1.29%, reporting $73.570 per barrel, while U.S. crude futures rose 1.36%, reporting $70.160 per barrel.
The Bitcoin market rebounded after hitting a low, now up 7.95%. After hitting a low of $920 million, Bitcoin surged sharply, rising by $8,500 during the session and now reporting $98,542. With the approach of 2025, the global focus of the cryptocurrency market has returned to the U.S. market.
Trump stated during his campaign that he would transform the U.S. into the 'cryptocurrency capital' and a 'Bitcoin superpower', a promise that sparked a global trading frenzy in cryptocurrencies, previously pushing the Bitcoin trading price to $100,000.
U.S. stock night trading opened higher, and after the opening, the three major indices collectively fluctuated and rose sharply. As of the time of writing, the Dow Jones rose by 0.48%, the Nasdaq rose by 1.01%, and the S&P 500 rose by 0.74%.
On the market, cryptocurrency concepts surged over 7%, flying car concepts had the highest rise of over 7%, with new energy concepts, lidar concepts, nuclear power concepts, and SPAC concepts rising by 3%. Chinese tech concepts fell by 3.43%, and NFT concepts had the largest decline of 1.74%.
Popular U.S. stocks: Nvidia rose by 1.10%, Tesla rose by 5.15%, Apple rose by 0.77%, AMD rose by 1.17%, Microsoft rose by 0.66%, Meta rose by 1.09%, Google rose by 0.44%, Amazon rose by 1.71%, Intel rose by 0.52%, Coca-Cola rose by 0.25%, JPMorgan rose by 1.16%, Bank of America rose by 0.77%, and General Motors rose by 1.59%.
On the news front:
On the morning of December 24, Tesla China's official website launched a 'Purchase Existing Cars with Down Payment Reduction' policy, allowing a reduction of 10,000 yuan on the down payment for purchasing an existing Model Y, which can be combined with the '5-Year 0% Interest Financing Plan' until January 31, 2025.
Apple has requested to participate in Google's upcoming online search antitrust trial in the United States, stating that it cannot rely on Google to uphold the revenue-sharing agreement, as Google pays this iPhone manufacturer tens of billions of dollars each year to make Google the default search engine for the Safari browser.
The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China opened high and fluctuated upward after the opening. As of the time of writing, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon rose by 1.02%, and the FTSE China 3x Long ETF rose by 3.78%.
Popular Chinese concept stocks: Alibaba rose by 0.68%, Pinduoduo fell by 0.67%, NIO rose by 3.57%, JD.com rose by 0.39%, Xpeng rose by 2.11%, New Oriental rose by 1.92%, BeiGene fell by 1.86%, KE Holdings rose by 1.85%, Tencent Music rose by 1.70%, Zhihu fell by 0.55%, TAL Education fell by 0.55%, iQIYI rose by 1.20%, Vipshop rose by 0.70%, and NetEase rose by 0.23%.
▶ Wall Street battles the Federal Reserve! Pushing the Federal Reserve to issue a notice of 'backing down' is not enough, and has also taken it to court.
Just as the Federal Reserve openly 'backs down' and announces major policy changes for bank stress tests, it received a lawsuit from Wall Street. On Tuesday local time, the Bank Policy Institute (BPI) formally sued the Federal Reserve, accusing it of using opaque processes to test the resilience of banks in the annual stress tests. The lawsuit states: 'Due to the lack of transparency from the Federal Reserve Board, the banking industry faces significant and unpredictable fluctuations in capital requirements.'