Market analysis firm CoinGecko points out that, in the last 10 years, bitcoin $BTC has seen post-Christmas highs in eight years.
Market analysis firm CoinGecko released a report last Thursday, the 12th, dedicated to an old, and curious, phenomenon in the cryptocurrency market: the "Santa Claus rally". As the name suggests, the movement is linked to an appreciation of assets right after Christmas.
The "gift" that the market receives during this period was quantified by the company. In the last 10 years, between 2014 and 2023, cryptocurrencies had a positive performance on eight out of 10 occasions. The period analyzed encompasses December 27th to January 2nd.
According to CoinGecko, increases varied between 0.69% in the year with the lowest increase, in 2014, and 11.87% in the year with the sector's best performance, in 2017. In 2023, the "Santa Claus rally " resulted in an appreciation of 3.64% in the market. The years 2021 and 2022 were the exceptions, with drops of 5.3% and 1.9%, respectively.
The survey also indicates that upward movements before Christmas are more difficult. In the 10 years evaluated, the sector appreciated before the festive date in five. Even so, the performance was similar to the post-Christmas period, with increases ranging from 0.15% to 11.56%.
Only three years saw gains both before and after Christmas: 2016, with gains of 11.56% and 10.56%; 2018, with gains of 1.31% and 4.53%; and 2023, with gains of 4.05% and 3.64%. Considering the entire month of December, market performance showed more variation.
CoinGecko points out that, in five of the ten years, the cryptocurrency market saw increases in the last month of the year, ranging from 16.08% to 94.19% in 2017. In the other five years, the movement was downward, ranging from 1.73% to 15.56%.
In the company's view, the data indicates that the "Santa Claus rally" is still "not a consistent phenomenon", making it difficult to guarantee its repetition this year.
Alta do bitcoin no Natal?
Specifically in the case of Bitcoin, CoinGecko also found that the upward movement is more common before the date. In the 10 years evaluated, the cryptocurrency rose seven times in the week before Christmas, and five times in the week after.
In general, the asset's performance was similar both in terms of growth - with appreciations between 0.2% and 13.19% - and decline - with losses between 0.33% and 10.86% -, also in line with the sector's general performance.
CoinGecko believes, however, that these movements indicate an "inconsistent phenomenon". Therefore, it is not possible to say with certainty that the asset will see increases in the last weeks of 2024.
