Today is December 23, 2024, Monday. Bitcoin and Ethereum continue to decline, but altcoins show some resistance to falling. It is expected that after the market stabilizes, altcoins should have a nice rebound. From the liquidation charts of exchanges, it seems that the long positions in the contract market have almost been liquidated. Even if Bitcoin falls to $85,000, it can only explode $1.17 billion; conversely, if Bitcoin rises to $105,000, it can explode $2.4 billion in short positions. After a sharp drop, there must be a rebound. In the short term, Bitcoin's second pullback should focus on the previous low of $92,000. As long as it does not break below, I personally believe there is a high probability of a rebound.
From historical data, the period from January to April in the year following Bitcoin's halving has experienced good upward trends. This was the case in 2017 and 2021, and I believe this bull market will not be an exception. Therefore, it's hard to buy a bull's turnaround. Cherish the recent corrections.
In this round of bull market, Ethereum is much weaker than Bitcoin. From the daily chart, Ethereum's K-line has three consecutive bearish days, showing a trend of a second pullback to the previous low. In the short term, watch the previous low support at $3100 for the second pullback. Even if it refreshes, it will probably only pull back to around $3000. Ethereum's rise won't end so easily; the decline is to pave the way for a better rise, making a significant drop to wash out the market and let the majority lose confidence, allowing the main force to lift it better. Therefore, those looking to buy Ethereum at the bottom can gradually buy spot around $3100 and below. A sharp drop will always be followed by a rebound; the majority of people's cost price is in this range, and panic will prevent many from holding. So after the adjustment, Ethereum is expected to challenge the previous high pressure level of $3600. Cherish the opportunity to buy low!
In the altcoin market, Sui and BGB have indeed been strong recently, and Bitcoin has made a second pullback. The prices of these two coins can stabilize above $4. Once Bitcoin adjusts well, I believe Sui and BGB are likely to break above $5 and set new historical highs. Therefore, in the short term, if these two can pull back below $4, it would be a good opportunity to gradually buy some spot.
Yesterday's rebound of Pnut drove a wave of meme coins to rise, such as Neiro, Pepe, and Act, all rebounding. I have to say that this round of altcoins has indeed been difficult to endure, but now we are about to enter January, and persistence will lead to victory.
For those old hands who experienced the previous 312 and 94 events, this round of correction shouldn't be too alarming, because everyone knows that even if the market doesn't rally now, it will definitely rally in the first quarter of next year. Moreover, Trump will officially take office in January next year, and there will be a wave of speculation before then. Based on the current timeline, it is expected that speculation will start from the end of this month to early January. Additionally, from the liquidation data of contracts, the amount of long position liquidations is gradually decreasing. Once the long positions are exhausted, it will be time to raise the short positions.
Many newcomers are worried that this round of correction is too much and whether this bull market can only break even or not break even at all. In fact, we can refer to the rally from the beginning of this year to March and the one from last month. As long as the market starts to rally, it is very fast. Earlier this year, there were basically tenfold increases in a week. Recently, even XRP, which has such a large market cap, has already increased fourfold from the bottom. For smaller market cap coins, once the rally starts, a tenfold increase is not a problem. So don't worry about not making money. In a continuous decline, the market makers cannot offload either. Without trading volume and depth, everyone can rest assured. Winter has passed, how far can spring be?
Finally, after the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting, I personally believe that there shouldn't be any major negative news in the market. The market is already prepared for no interest rate cuts in January and March next year. As long as no new negative news appears, the downside for Bitcoin will be relatively limited.
When market liquidity is insufficient, it really depends on market sentiment. As long as someone sells, the price may continue to fall, so no one can predict where the bottom is. We cannot buy at the lowest point; we can only reduce our average holding price by buying in batches. This trading method will allow us to get a relatively low price.
Today's article ends here. See you next time!
Investment has risks. The above content is a personal sharing and does not constitute investment advice!
