This week, the price of Bitcoin has fallen below $100,000, and I believe this decline is a healthy and effective correction, which is a common phenomenon in a bull market. In past cycles, the crypto market often experiences significant corrections, which help to digest the risks of excessive speculation and lay the foundation for future increases.
The structural trend of Bitcoin's price movement remains intact, with no substantial changes, still above the trend line, so I maintain my previous viewpoint!
Short-term holder realized price (STH-RP) — the actual cost basis for short-term holders has risen to about $85,357, providing some support for the market. Short-term holders typically take profits when prices rise, which may lead to selling pressure; however, as more institutional investors enter the market, market behavior may change.
Long-term holders of Bitcoin usually expect to achieve at least ten times the return before selling large amounts of Bitcoin into the market. In contrast, short-term holders lack this patience, typically choosing to take profits after realizing a 20% to 40% gain.
Since reaching a peak a few weeks ago, the U.S. stock market has seen the S&P 500 index pull back over 4%, viewed as a small sell-off. This correction can be seen as a "healthy correction," as the index successfully tested the 50-day moving average, and although it briefly fell below, it is currently in a rebound state. Meanwhile, the width of the 50-day moving average has dropped to oversold levels, indicating a normal adjustment in the market.
