Earlier this week, Bitcoin fell from its historical high, continuing the downward trend on Friday and once approaching $95,000. Previously, Bitcoin had just set a new all-time high of over $108,000. The current round of declines in the cryptocurrency market has had a greater impact on altcoins such as Ethereum and Dogecoin. Moreover, the U.S. exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that directly invest in Bitcoin also ended a 15-day inflow streak this week, recording an outflow of $680 million, highlighting the shift in market sentiment.

Is the bull market over? When will the market reverse?

I want to say that the bull market is still on! The market has stopped falling! Bull markets often experience sharp declines; these are relatively common, and it is better not to act impulsively.

Just to clarify, this drop was also due to Powell's failure to recognize BTC as a potential strategic reserve, leading to market sell-offs. This is understandable; market holders are unwilling to bear risks and prefer to continue entering at lower levels!

I believe this issue can only be addressed once Trump is back in office. Additionally, the second president's envoy's constant reporting of the former SEC chairman's actions, while the SEC chairman resists the market by releasing negative news.

As for whether the market has stopped falling, the rebound after the sharp decline shows that it has temporarily stabilized, but it is not a signal to buy the dip. This is connected to the PCE data, including institutional forecasts about Ethereum's ETF staking possibly being approved, and Trump's increased position in ETH. However, the weekend market is ultimately a game among retail investors, meaning that after a significant drop, there will naturally be some capital intervention.

However, this intervention cannot last long, as Christmas is approaching, and there is a demand for liquidity to withdraw during holiday periods. Given the size of this round, we must also guard against another adjustment that could crash the market. As long as the washout offers opportunities to pick up cheap chips, one should buy the dip gradually within a bearable range instead of always chasing after highs.

In summary, the overall trend is still present, and Bitcoin's current fluctuations after the rebound are not significant. However, altcoins are more sensitive; if Bitcoin shows any signs of movement, they all tend to hedge. Today's Bitcoin liquidity is poor, primarily due to reduced purchasing power during the holiday season. The recent market has mainly been oscillating for about a week, so we should stick to a range trading strategy!

What events should we pay attention to next?

With Christmas approaching, next week's market will be relatively calm, although there are still some relatively influential data points. However, due to thin liquidity, market volatility may become significant. Here are the key points the market will focus on in the new week:

Monday at 23:00, U.S. December Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index;

Thursday at 21:30, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending December 21.

For the dollar, with an overall hawkish bias from the Federal Reserve, it is expected that the dollar will not easily lose its position gained this year, although low trading volume during the holiday period may trigger some unnecessary volatility. Overall, if any market turbulence occurs during the holiday, it is more likely to impact U.S. stocks and bonds. The Fed's hawkish stance has not been welcomed by Wall Street, and with U.S. Treasury yields continuing to rise, selling pressure may intensify.

When is the right time to buy the dip?

Now that the Christmas holiday and the end of the 2024 fiscal year are approaching, traders are on vacation, and the market is likely to be quiet during this time. We are waiting for the market to find a bottom or for a significant deleveraging event to occur. Recently, BTC may oscillate between $95,000 and $100,000.

In any case, there are no short-term hopes for the Federal Reserve to release dollar liquidity, and BTC may still experience a significant correction to complete the pullback on the weekly chart. In such a market environment, we might see a period of activity in altcoins.

As for the timing of entry, whether for long or short positions, waiting is currently the best strategy.

Short-term investors

If you are a short-term trader, you can pay attention to Bitcoin's support level around $90,000. If the price pulls back to this range and the trading volume increases, it might be a good opportunity to buy the dip.

Long-term investors

For long-term investors, every pullback in Bitcoin is an opportunity to build positions gradually. It is advisable to focus on the strong support area near $85,000, which may become the bottom area for the market.

Long-term bullish outlook for the big bull market; if you still have positions and want to buy the dip now, continue with the strategy of small buys during small dips and large buys during large dips!

In summary, we are currently in the bull market initiation phase; the upward trend cannot be changed. Hold your positions with peace of mind to avoid being taken advantage of by market manipulators. A significant rise is expected at the beginning of January, and overall, the holiday period will likely be quiet, with the main aim being to trade contracts back and forth; simply hold your spot positions! Wait for the opportunity for a rise between January and March 2025.