1. Current situation
Current capitalization: $1.35 trillion.
Ichimoku Cloud:
Upper boundary — $1.4 trillion (resistance).
Lower boundary — $1.36 trillion (nearest resistance level).
EMA:
EMA 20 — $1.39 trillion (resistance).
EMA 50 — $1.45 trillion (significant resistance).
EMA 100 — $1.43 trillion.
EMA 200 — $1.33 trillion (support).
SAR:
Levels — $1.26 and $1.27 trillion (support).
RSI: 42.37 — in the bear control zone, does not confirm long.
OBV: 135.43 trillion — declining volumes, confirming weakness of bullish momentum.
2. Support and resistance levels
Support:
$1.33 trillion: EMA 200 and horizontal volume level.
$1.31 trillion: zone of local minima, coinciding with support on volume profile.
$1.26 trillion – $1.27 trillion: key support zone, confirmed by SAR.
Resistance:
$1.36 trillion: lower boundary of the Ichimoku cloud.
$1.39 trillion: EMA 20.
$1.4 trillion: upper boundary of the Ichimoku cloud.
$1.45 trillion: EMA 50 and strong horizontal resistance.
3. Scenarios of events development
Long scenario (55% probability):
Conditions:
Price holds support at $1.33 trillion – $1.31 trillion.
RSI is rising above 45, volumes are starting to increase.
Breakout of $1.36 trillion and close above the Ichimoku cloud.
Entry points:
$1.33 trillion – $1.34 trillion: entry on a bounce from EMA 200 and horizontal level.
$1.31 trillion: additional entry on retest of support.
Targets:
$1.36 trillion: first target (lower boundary of the Ichimoku cloud).
$1.39 trillion: second target (EMA 20).
$1.45 trillion: long-term target (EMA 50).
Stop-loss: below $1.31 trillion.
Short scenario (45% probability):
Conditions:
Breakout of $1.33 trillion down with a close.
RSI falls below 40, volumes increase.
Strengthening SAR below the price.
Entry points:
$1.36 trillion: entry on retest of resistance.
$1.33 trillion: entry after breakout of EMA 200.
Targets:
$1.31 trillion: first target.
$1.27 trillion: second target (SAR level).
$1.26 trillion: long-term target.
Stop-loss: above $1.34 trillion.
4. Conclusions and recommendations
Likely scenario:
Long (55%), if capitalization holds above $1.33 trillion – $1.31 trillion.
Long confirmation: breakout of $1.36 trillion with a close above.
Short:
Consider only upon breakout of $1.33 trillion down with targets down to $1.27 trillion.
Risks:
Declining volumes (OBV) and low RSI signal weakness of the current bounce.
Recommendations:
For long: entries in the zone of $1.33 trillion with targets up to $1.39 trillion.
For short: confirmation on breakout of $1.33 trillion with a target down to $1.27 trillion.
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