1. Current situation

Current capitalization: $1.35 trillion.

Ichimoku Cloud:

Upper boundary — $1.4 trillion (resistance).

Lower boundary — $1.36 trillion (nearest resistance level).

EMA:

EMA 20 — $1.39 trillion (resistance).

EMA 50 — $1.45 trillion (significant resistance).

EMA 100 — $1.43 trillion.

EMA 200 — $1.33 trillion (support).

SAR:

Levels — $1.26 and $1.27 trillion (support).

RSI: 42.37 — in the bear control zone, does not confirm long.

OBV: 135.43 trillion — declining volumes, confirming weakness of bullish momentum.

2. Support and resistance levels

Support:

$1.33 trillion: EMA 200 and horizontal volume level.

$1.31 trillion: zone of local minima, coinciding with support on volume profile.

$1.26 trillion – $1.27 trillion: key support zone, confirmed by SAR.

Resistance:

$1.36 trillion: lower boundary of the Ichimoku cloud.

$1.39 trillion: EMA 20.

$1.4 trillion: upper boundary of the Ichimoku cloud.

$1.45 trillion: EMA 50 and strong horizontal resistance.

3. Scenarios of events development

Long scenario (55% probability):

Conditions:

Price holds support at $1.33 trillion – $1.31 trillion.

RSI is rising above 45, volumes are starting to increase.

Breakout of $1.36 trillion and close above the Ichimoku cloud.

Entry points:

$1.33 trillion – $1.34 trillion: entry on a bounce from EMA 200 and horizontal level.

$1.31 trillion: additional entry on retest of support.

Targets:

$1.36 trillion: first target (lower boundary of the Ichimoku cloud).

$1.39 trillion: second target (EMA 20).

$1.45 trillion: long-term target (EMA 50).

Stop-loss: below $1.31 trillion.

Short scenario (45% probability):

Conditions:

Breakout of $1.33 trillion down with a close.

RSI falls below 40, volumes increase.

Strengthening SAR below the price.

Entry points:

$1.36 trillion: entry on retest of resistance.

$1.33 trillion: entry after breakout of EMA 200.

Targets:

$1.31 trillion: first target.

$1.27 trillion: second target (SAR level).

$1.26 trillion: long-term target.

Stop-loss: above $1.34 trillion.

4. Conclusions and recommendations

Likely scenario:

Long (55%), if capitalization holds above $1.33 trillion – $1.31 trillion.

Long confirmation: breakout of $1.36 trillion with a close above.

Short:

Consider only upon breakout of $1.33 trillion down with targets down to $1.27 trillion.

Risks:

Declining volumes (OBV) and low RSI signal weakness of the current bounce.

Recommendations:

For long: entries in the zone of $1.33 trillion with targets up to $1.39 trillion.

For short: confirmation on breakout of $1.33 trillion with a target down to $1.27 trillion.

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