🧲 Should we still insist: from the perspective of a four-year cycle, to understand where we currently are using a few simple indicators? 👇
>> Crypto Total M.Cap Excluding TOP10 Dominance Market Share of Altcoins Excluding the Top 10 by Market Cap
- This clearly presents a four-year cyclical pattern, with bottoms almost always occurring at the beginning of altcoin years (2017/2021/2025)
- With various forces joining the crypto space, the variety of digital currencies is rising exponentially. For retail investors, compared to the anchored BTC trend and performance metrics like 'Sentiment Index' and 'AHR999', this indicator better reflects the changes in position value
- This indicator strongly reversed after reaching historical support in November, showing an upward trend, currently caught in a medium to short-term pullback but has not broken the support line
>> M.Cap Bitcoin Dominance Bitcoin Market Share
- A well-known indicator, the waterfall of this indicator signifies the anticipated arrival of altcoin season; in the previous several altcoin years, it almost always peaked at the 'beginning of the year' before cascading down, contributing massive overflow funds to the altcoin market
- Since December, this indicator has clearly broken down through the rising trend line and then rebounded, which is also the fundamental reason many people got trapped in altcoins
>> ETH/BTC Ethereum to Bitcoin Price Ratio
- As the main engine of altcoin season, $ETH surged out of the bottom pattern in the first two altcoin years, pulling up many other small-cap altcoins
- However, in this cycle, this indicator has not yet shown a clear bottom pattern, looking forward to a rebound trend in the future
>> Altcoin Market Cap Chart
- It is generally believed that all cryptocurrencies except for $BTC are collectively referred to as altcoins
- In the previous cycle, the altcoin market cap broke through previous highs and continued to rise, nearly doubling, and the mid-year pullback did not break the previous high
- In this cycle, this indicator has reached a new high, looking forward to the subsequent trend
- As indicated by the above metrics, we are currently in altcoin season, and the year-end Christmas pullback is normal and has always been the case
- With the temporary pause in interest rate cuts in January and macro factors such as Trump's inauguration on January 20, the crypto market may experience a medium to short-term pullback in late January 2025, and it's advisable to adjust leverage and recover high-risk altcoin allocations
- My personal view is that after this pullback, we will welcome a magnificent altcoin season in this cycle, looking forward to its arrival!