The day before yesterday, I reminded everyone that the market might be about to correct, but Bitcoin really plummeted, and nearly 300,000 people were forced to close their positions. It was a horrible sight!
In fact, there are two main reasons for this plunge: one is that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut plan for next year is not strong enough, causing bad luck for U.S. stocks and Bitcoin to fall as well; the other is that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that they will not buy Bitcoin and do not want to change the law.
But I think these two problems are temporary and the market will digest them after a while.
Now Bitcoin has fallen to around 97,000. Don't panic, because this drop is mainly due to news, so it may fluctuate around 100,000 in the short term. If you think the price is right, you can try to buy some spot in batches, up to around 80,000, but don't touch the contract!
BNB also fell, but now it has rebounded quickly. In the short term, it may fluctuate around 700. If you play spot grid quantization, you should be able to make some money. Ethereum
ETH is in a bad situation. It has fallen more than Bitcoin, and its rebound is not strong. The funding rate has also dropped a lot. If it falls again, it may be weak for a while.
Well, everyone knows that if Lao Ma doesn't speak, it's just a decoration, but no one knows when Lao Ma will speak.
In general, I think Bitcoin will continue to fluctuate after this adjustment, and the bull market is not over yet. But there may still be some risks in the next few days, and the real opportunity may not come until mid-to-late January. So, it is safer to buy some spot now, and don't touch the contract, it's too scary!
Next, let's see if Trump will create an economic miracle immediately
There is about one month left before Trump takes office. As the market generally expects inflation to rise after he takes office, after the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points this time, Powell's hawkish remarks have reduced expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts in 2025 to two 25 basis points, which is much lower than previous expectations.
Even the Fed has postponed its goal of keeping inflation at 2% until 2027, which means that the Fed believes that there is a lot of uncertainty about inflation under Trump's administration.
The current Bitcoin bull market is supported by funds from ETFs and listed companies represented by MSTR. However, despite the Fed’s 25 basis point rate cut, the financial environment is still tightening.
9
Since January, long-term bond yields and mortgage rates have been rising, and the appreciation of the US dollar will bring macro risks to Bitcoin, because the appreciation of the US dollar is also associated with a contraction in the global money supply, which is often unfavorable to Bitcoin and other crypto assets, and the Federal Reserve's net liquidity continues to decrease.
With Christmas approaching, the end of fiscal year 2024 and Trump’s inauguration imminent, the capital market has already priced in. In the past, the capital market was relatively flat during this time window. Industry leader Arthur Hayes believes that the cryptocurrency market will experience a painful plunge around Trump’s inauguration on January 20, 2025, and then buy on dips.
In the future, Bitcoin may fluctuate between $80,000 and $110,000, just like the fluctuation between $50,000 and $70,000 after March, until new events change this trend (black swan, large-scale money release, approval of strategic reserve assets, etc.). However, altcoins are still in a bear market. This is just a rebound. The fundamentals of no ecosystem, no new funds, and VCs continuously lifting restrictions and cashing out have not changed. In addition, the large number of new coins launched by the top platforms to absorb blood, it is difficult for altcoins to have a trend.
The turning point in the cryptocurrency world has finally come!
The inflation data just released showed that both PCE and core PCE beat expectations, falling an additional 1%. This greatly eased the current rumors that the Fed will cut interest rates less next year, and now that Wall Street is back to work, a rebound is expected.
In addition, if you look at the on-chain data, you will find that the Trump family’s WLFI has increased its holdings by 759 ETH. Oh no, did Trump buy at the bottom?
Recently, the market share of Bitcoin has dropped from 60% to 55%, which means that the cottage season has begun. Recently, there have been constant hot spots, which can be said to be a hundred flowers blooming: AI Agent took the lead, Virtuals Protocol broke through the market value of 300 million US dollars; Solana ecosystem ai16z also broke through the market value of 1 billion US dollars, and Hyperliquid ecological currency HYPE rose more than 10 times in terms of products. In terms of products, the open interest in the exchange has repeatedly broken new highs, breaking through 4.3 billion US dollars. Even the NFT sector that was almost forgotten by the market has made some moves. Magic Eden and Pudgy Penguins have successively issued coins, driving many ETH/SOL blue-chip NFT projects to rise.
The above simple inventory of hot spots in various sectors shows that they are all centered on the chain. So have the tokens in centralized exchanges really been forgotten by the market?
In fact, there is another narrative in this bull market cycle that cannot be ignored: Trump’s election.
Trump's election means that cryptocurrency has officially entered the public eye. The improvement of laws and regulations and the relaxation of supervision will help external funds enter the cryptocurrency circle, which can be verified by the continuous net inflow of funds from BTC and ETH spot ETFs. The Trump family's cryptocurrency project WLFI also set an example by frantically purchasing DeFi-related currencies in one month, including ETH, CBBTC, AAVE, LINK, ENA, and ONDO.
So how did the prices of the above currencies perform after purchasing WLFI? What are the common features between these tokens? What other concept currencies are there? Let Shiguang take you to have a look.
WLFI has been active recently: buying ENA, ONDO, etc.
At about 4 am yesterday, according to Onchain Lens monitoring, the Trump family encryption project
WLFI (World Liberty) spent another 250,000 USDC to purchase 231,726 ENA, and its ENA holdings rose to 741,
687 cbBTC with a total cost of $750,000. In addition, it also exchanged 103 cbBTC worth $10.36 million into WBTC.
On December 16, WLFI spent 250,000 USDC to buy 134,216 ONDO.
On December 15, WLFI spent 500,013 USDC to buy 509,955 ENA at an average price of 0.981 USD.
On December 13, WLFI spent 1 million USDC to buy 37,052 LINK, and spent 151,985 USDC to buy 422 AAVE; within 48 hours, the project spent a total of 10 million USDC to buy 2,631 ETH; spent 1,246,722 USDC to buy 4,043 AAVE; spent 2 million USDC to buy 78,387 LINK.
On December 12, according to Arkham monitoring, WLFI
The multi-signature address holds 14,573 ETH (about 57.03 million US dollars), 102.9 CBBTC (about 10.38 million US dollars), and 3.108 million
USDT, 1.515 million USDC, 41,335 LINK (about $1.17 million), 3,357 AAVE (about $1.16 million),
It is worth mentioning that the project had just converted a large amount of stablecoins from token sales into ETH on that day, and its ETH holdings were worth more than 50 million US dollars at that time.
As mentioned on the chain before, WLFI
The non-stablecoin assets purchased include LINK/AAVE/ENA/ONDO, half of which belong to DeFi head applications and half to RWA assets.
COW is not in World Liberty’s Portofolio, but since the last few on-chain token purchases were made using
Cowswap, whose price has also soared by nearly 93% in the past seven days, has also had a driving effect on other tokens it has purchased:
On December 14, after buying LINK and AAVE, WLFI had a floating profit of US$299,000 on the former and US$338,000 on the latter.
On December 16, after the news of WLFI’s purchase spread, ONDO broke through 2.1 USDT, setting a new historical high, with a 24-hour increase of 16.33%.
On December 16, boosted by news such as WLFI buying various tokens, COW broke through $1, setting a new all-time high; the price of ENA once rose to $1.33, only less than $0.2 away from its previous historical high.
If the BTC price was previously affected by the "Trump effect" and broke through the $100,000 mark from $70,000, then there is no doubt that WLFI's holdings were also affected by this effect.
After all, in the eyes of cryptocurrency traders in the United States and around the world, WLFI is "Trump's open project."
Purchase History Summary
The above table shows that WLFI spent a total of 44.75 million U.S. dollars on purchasing cryptocurrencies since November 30. At the time of writing, December 18, all the currencies held by WLFI are in a floating profit state.
Interestingly, traditional institutions used to be more interested in Bitcoin than Ethereum, but in the investment portfolio, we can see that World Liberty Financial holds far more ETH than Bitcoin. Perhaps this also means that compared to Bitcoin, they are more optimistic about the subsequent price trend of Ethereum.
AAVE is the market leader in lending and the No. 1 TVL among all protocols. The deposit scale is close to 40 billion US dollars, a record high, and the price of the currency has also risen by 35% in seven days. In addition, the World Liberty Financial community voted to pass the proposal to cooperate with AAVE, which is currently in the TEMP CHECK stage of AaveDAO. If the proposal is passed, it will bring new users and more real benefits to AAVE.
LINK is a veteran oracle project. On November 14, World Liberty Financial also announced that it would adopt Chainlink as the standard for on-chain data and cross-chain connections as a secure way to introduce DeFi into the next stage of large-scale adoption.
The development of ENA is closely related to this round of bull market. Since USDe's income comes from futures-to-spot arbitrage, as long as the market sentiment is more enthusiastic and the Ethereum funding rate is higher, Ethena can benefit from it. Recently, TVL has also exceeded 6 billion US dollars, a record high. In terms of products, they have also recently cooperated with BlackRock to launch the RWA stablecoin USDtb, with income from government bonds. The launch of this product also makes up for the market's concerns that the funding rate will turn negative, causing the overall protocol to enter a death spiral.
ONDO is the current leader in the RWA track. After BlackRock announced the launch of the BUIDL fund, Ondo Finance invested more than US$95 million in it, becoming the largest holder. Whether in terms of compliance, legitimacy, capital volume, or market favor, ONDO is the best choice in the current RWA track.
In addition to the above-mentioned currencies, COW is also worth mentioning. When purchasing the above currencies in WLFI, only Cow Protocol is used for purchase, so it is also regarded as Trump concept currency.
What is WLFI's potential next buy?
We have three dimensions to speculate:
Polychain’s investment assets
It can be seen on the official website that Luke Pearson from Polychain has become one of the consultants of WLFI. There is a considerable possibility that the tokens purchased will come from Polychain's investment portfolio. According to Rootdata, we can see that not every project in the Polychain investment portfolio has issued tokens, and even fewer can be called senior DeFi projects.
Coingecko’s top 100 DeFi assets by market capitalization
At the same time, previously
The assets purchased by WLFI are all in the top 100 list of Coingecko market capitalization, probably due to considerations of volatility and drawdown.
Judging from the cooperation, its purchase of tokens is likely to carry subsequent cooperation considerations; using the popularity and influence of the purchase to reach cooperation with larger DeFi projects in the market, and then feeding back to itself
The brand value of WLFI as a DeFi protocol.
COWSwap’s listed assets (less impact)
The decentralized trading platform used by WLFI is CowSwap, which is also one of the more popular DEXs. Its products also include AMM, etc. On the interface of CowSwap, you can find that there are 374 assets that have been officially verified by CowSwap without having to manually enter the contract. If the network is Ethereum, it can be used as the largest range to choose from.
CowSwap does not support many networks. In addition to Ethereum, it only supports Gnosis, Base, Arbitrum One and Sepolia testnet.
Other purchases are also likely to occur on CowSwap, so it is relatively easy to buy DeFi on Solana.
Of course, this factor has a relatively small impact, and WLFI can be purchased through other platforms that support Solana, purchased manually, or OTC
Purchase assets for other projects.
What coin might you buy next?
So based on these considerations, what tokens can we find?
Also a Polychain investment project/CowSwap listed asset/and Coingecko top 100 market cap:
Maker (MKR), recently upgraded its brand to SKY
Uniswap (UNI)
DYDX (currently ranked 113th in market capitalization, not much different)
During the rest of Trump's term, WLFI's buying action may provide important signals for investment decisions.
First of all, from their holdings, we can see that it is best if the token itself has a cooperative relationship with WLFI, such as AAVe m3 LINK, and then "clear business model" and "stable actual income". AAVE, LINK, ENA, ONDO, etc. all have clear product positioning, a large number of ecological users and actual income models. This means that they will not blindly pursue "novel" or "pure concept" tokens, but prefer to invest in protocols that can bring long-term value.
LDO: Since World Liberty Financial holds much more ETH than BTC, it shows that they are very optimistic about the long-term potential of Ethereum. With the maturity of Ethereum's staking mechanism, and the possible introduction of Ethereum staking interest rates by ETFs, the leading protocol LIDO has become the current first choice.
It is the largest liquid staking protocol in the Ethereum ecosystem, with a TVL of up to US$37 billion, accounting for 30% of the entire Ethereum staking market.
Pendle: It mainly focuses on the revenue splitting market, allowing users to trade future revenue rights. With the rise of Ethereum staking rates and yields of protocols such as USDe, the demand for the revenue trading market continues to increase, making Pendle highly concerned by the market in this bull market. Recently, Pendle's TVL has exceeded 5 billion US dollars, and it has established partnerships with multiple mainstream DeFi protocols.
UNI: Uniswap is the origin of DeFi Summer and is the most commonly used decentralized exchange by users. It is the leader in this field. Recently, they also launched Unichain, but the market response was cold. However, this does not affect users' dependence on Uniswap products.
At the same time, if we also consider projects that are not in Polychain’s portfolio but have high brand value, we can add the following four currencies:
Lido, Pendle, Eigen and Curve. These projects also have some "American attributes" and it is also possible to reach a cooperation. If the market value is expanded,
Then 1inch and Morpho are also likely to be smaller.
Overall, WLFI's investment strategy is strategic and shows strong fund operation capabilities. In the future, WLFI's purchase targets may continue to focus on high-quality DeFi assets in the top 100 by market value, and this big pullback may also become the best window for buying. During Trump's next term, WLFI's buying actions may provide important signals for investment decisions.
Today I will focus on Monky, 80% of it will be listed on Binance!
Monky has cooperated with the millionaire DWF, and has previously transferred 200 billion tokens to the DWF address. The issuer of Monky is Floki, and 27% of MONKY will be airdropped to FLOKI holders and pledgers.
Behind Floki is DWF. Previously, DWF Labs announced that it had purchased 12,000.000 USD of FLOKI tokens to support the Floki ecosystem. Floki skyrocketed. There is no need to say more about the relationship between DWF and Binance.