Prediction post Metis is about to announce major positive news? ? What is the motivation behind ENKI's crazy price increase? ? Share the game process between the gambling and the project party and try to dig out the wealth code behind it. It is a purely immature logical reasoning analysis. Just watch it for fun. It is not an investment advice.

Yesterday, I shared my thoughts on the recent crazy pull of ENKI at Brother Jian’s small dining table. I didn’t expect to get a good response. After thinking about it, I decided to share my thinking logic publicly. If I guessed it right, I could brag about it. Why not?

First, let me briefly introduce the project background:
Metis is an L2 project of Ethereum. Its highlight is that it is called "V God's fucking project". It focuses on decentralized sorting. It is rare among all Layer 2 projects to use Metis tokens as the native token and Gas Fee on the chain.
ENKI is one of the largest LSD projects on Metis, similar to Lido on Ethereum.

Here's what happened. I bought a lot of Metis before and got stuck. I thought it would be better to just leave it there and find a place to earn some interest. Then I happened to find ENKI. At that time, the annualized return of nearly 40% looked very attractive, so I pledged it without thinking too much.

But after staking, we immediately discovered a problem, that is, the staking unlocking rules of ENKI are a bit tricky: when you unlock Metis, you can only unlock 70% of the total amount first, and the remaining 30% will be forcibly locked in the ENKI protocol. To take out this 30%, you need to stake the ENKI token in the protocol and wait for 90 days before it can be unlocked linearly. The proportion and price of the pledged ENKI are actually similar to the Metis you locked in.

What does this mean? It is equivalent to you staking $10,000 ETH in Lido. When you want to withdraw it, you can only take out $7,000 ETH. For the remaining $3,000, you must purchase $3,000 worth of LIDO Tokens and stake them before you can withdraw them after 90 days. During this period, you also need to take the risk of price fluctuations. 90 days can cause a huge change in the price of a Token.

At the time, I was a little annoyed by this mechanism, but later I also learned about the design motivation. This is actually a safe balance mechanism for restaking, so I can’t blame the project party. I didn’t see it clearly, but what the gamblers need to think about afterwards is how to maximize their own profits and get out of this situation safely? ?

So in October, I shared the following logic with my friends and bought a lot of ENKI directly:
1.

3.

Simply put, I judged at the time that the benefits of proactively purchasing ENKI in advance to unlock Metis would be higher than unlocking it after earning enough interest. The annualized returns of several dozen years look tempting, but the potential returns of directly buying ENKI tokens themselves may be greater.

The logic behind this judgment is that the situation of ENKI tokens is almost a "low liquidity" and "highly controlled by the project party". If I were the project party, I would know that when the price and popularity of Metis go up and users who have pledged and locked their positions have a demand to sell, they will be motivated to spend real money to buy ENKI and take out the remaining 30% of Metis (if they don't take it, it will rot in there).

So if I were the project owner, I would try to get ENKI before knowing that Metis has any big move, and sell as much as possible to users who have unlocking needs at a premium price to maximize profits.

If this logic is valid, then combined with the phenomenon of ENKI's sudden surge in recent days, if we think about why ENKI's price has surged, there are several possibilities:
1. Metis will soon have good news, and ENKI will pull up the price in advance to meet the unlocking demand.
2. ENKI will have good news soon, so pull up the price in advance to prepare for shipment.

However, considering the current status of ENKI tokens, I think possibility one is more likely, that is, Metis may be about to have a wave of good news, and this good news may include the announcement of important ecological cooperation, listing on the Korean Exchange, etc. I personally tend to believe that the possibility of listing on the Korean Exchange is greater, because the projects listed on the Korean Exchange recently have performed relatively well.

The above opinions are purely based on immature guesses, not investment advice. Just have fun with them and observe them over time. What if you are right?