BTC retreated sharply, breaking the 30-day moving average of 98.7k and temporarily reaching around 96k. For the reasons of the macro situation, friends who have been following my recent articles should be clear about it.
One is the panic caused by Google's Willow quantum computer some time ago.
Second, the Federal Reserve gave negative expectations for future interest rate cuts early yesterday morning.
This wave of decline has no waterfall, and it has lasted for two days. At present, the long positions have reached 1.4 billion, approaching the single-day liquidation of 1.5 billion in the last waterfall market; This is the result of the fish tail market, but the difficulty is that many people do not realize that it is the fish tail, and are still looking forward to the continuation of the large-scale trend market without correction. At present, this wave of decline should temporarily stop at 95, but the bottom of the shock is still uncertain. I boldly analyze it from several aspects such as market liquidity, market leverage, ETF fund flow, market sentiment, and US buying:
(1) Market liquidity: USDT supply decreased by 365 million, the largest decrease since July 2023, and market liquidity continued to deteriorate
(2) Market leverage ratio Bitcoin holdings are 662,900 BTC, which has not dropped significantly from the highest point of 667,000 BTC and is nearly 10% higher than the December low of 603,100 BTC. Ethereum holdings have slightly increased during the decline and are currently at 7.3827 million ETH, the highest point in history. The leverage ratio of mainstream currencies is still high.
(3) ETF fund flows: The four indicative Bitcoin spot ETFs, FBTC, ARKB, BITB, and BTC, had a total net outflow of US$548.8 million yesterday, a significant increase compared to the net outflows on the 17th and 18th. The three indicative Ethereum spot ETFs, FETH, ETH, and ETHW, had a net outflow of US$4.9 million yesterday, a significant decrease compared to the net outflow of US$30.2 million on the 18th. The selling pressure on Bitcoin ETFs increased sharply, while the selling pressure on Ethereum ETFs decreased.
(4) Market sentiment The weighted funding rates of Bitcoin and Ethereum are both below 0.01%. Binance USDT lending rate has slightly declined and is currently 11.83%. Market sentiment continues to remain sluggish.
(5) US buying
As the market fell, the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index continued to fall and U.S. buying continued to weaken.
(6) K-line trend
BTC has been trading sideways at a high level for 35 days. And the bottom is getting higher and higher, until the black swan appears in the Fed meeting. Since the purchase cost for 30 days is above 90,000. There is also an expectation that the United States will include BTC in its strategic reserves. The decline is almost over, and the maximum decline is between 88,000 and 91,000.
Over the next two days of the weekend, it will fluctuate in the range of 95,000-98,000. It will not rebound immediately. We need to wait until the U.S. stock market stabilizes next week and stops falling and starts to rebound. The impact of the Federal Reserve will be released for another 3-5 days. Friends who currently have a lot of altcoins should not rush to sell them. Most altcoins are near the historical bottom:
•The maximum room for decline is only 35% more than the historical low;
•The downside space is small, only about 20%.
If you can't bear to change positions, and if the short-term rebound is 20%, you have to consider whether to run or not. Such repeated operations are meaningless. Currently, most currencies have fallen by 50% in this round. Only by holding a currency can you retain confidence and avoid continuous losses. Suggestion: Wait for the spot and retreat to advance.
