• Let me remind you that yesterday we had the Fed meeting and Powell's press conference.

  • He voiced rhetoric that had a negative impact on all markets.

Fed Forecasts and Powell Rhetoric:

🗽💵

  • ➡️Fed Rate:

  1. - Rate cut by 0.5% in 2025 and by 0.5% in 2026

  2. - In 2025 the rate will be reduced by 2 times (by 0.25%)

  3. The Fed is moving toward a more restrained pace of rate cuts.

💱

  • ➡️ Inflation:

  1. - Inflation returned to its previous level in November

  2. - The forecast for 2025 has been increased from 2.1% to 2.5%

  3. - Reducing inflation to 2.5% in 2025 will be progress.

  4. The Fed has adjusted its inflation expectations, leading to a change in expectations for a rate cut in 2025.

🌐

  • ➡️Labor market:

  1. - The situation on the labor market has improved

  2. - Unemployment has increased, but not enough

  3. - The labor market is not a source of inflationary pressure.

  4. Low unemployment is one reason for the slowdown in rate cuts.

📉

  • ➡️GDP:

  1. - Economic activity continues to grow at a steady pace

  2. - The forecast for GDP growth in 2025 was increased from 2.0% to 2.1%;

  3. - The economy is strong, there is no reason for recession.

  4. Powell said strong economic growth was one reason for stopping rate cuts.

🔓💵

Let's set the right expectations for 2025 based on the current situation:

1️⃣ Markets expect only 2_rate_cuts in 2025:

  • - For large investors, this means that the dollar will not weaken as much.

  • - There will be fewer risky assets in the portfolios of large investors.

  • Powell has cooled the greed for risky assets, but in this case it is an opportunity and additional time to assemble a portfolio.

⚒️🔰

2️⃣ In the previous cycle the situation was similar:

  • - After 3 rate cuts, 3 Fed meetings were paused

  • - In this case, the Fed announced the risks of a slow rate cut

  • We are more likely to see smooth declines in important data.

🎄🎅🏻

3️⃣ What are the target indicators in macroeconomics?

  • - Inflation rate of 2.5% and below;

  • - Unemployment is above 4.3%;

  • - Moderate GDP growth;

  • - Lower oil prices could also help if Trump does indeed "calm" the Middle East.

🧩🔮

  • That's all, we tried to tell you as simply as possible about the economic processes that are important to us.

  • To sum it all up, it's the same as before - a regular "panic sell", it's not a disaster, growth will continue, growth cannot happen without corrections. January/February should give the long-awaited altseason. ETH 7k+ / BTC 150k+ 👍🏻