The Bitcoin ecosystem will take one year to complete the five-year journey of Ethereum
ICO+DeFi+Metaverse+NFT+L2s, etc.
1. Why can Bitcoin take these paths?
First, these narratives have been proven to be objective results selected by the market. Reducing the cost of exploration, more than 90% of concepts have been falsified in the past five years, and Bitcoin ecosystem funds will be more concentrated in these "valid narratives", coming faster and with bigger bubbles. Ethereum still has its significance and opportunities. The warriors of exploration have found a track that fits the common denominator of crypto narratives. It is inappropriate to belittle a successful giant.
Second, the Bitcoin ecosystem can perfectly avoid the "sequelae of resource monopoly". In 2022 and 2023, there was actually a narrative vacuum in the crypto circle, with more reinventions, shells, and micro-innovations. The root cause is the following chain: old money in the cryptocurrency circle gets rich by following innovation → monopoly of resources and discourse power → difficulty for project parties to list coins, accumulate TVL, and organize → high innovation costs → high asset issuance costs → high takeover costs for retail investors → lack of wealth creation effect → weak innovation and ecology, a negative cycle🔄.
On the one hand, the Bitcoin ecosystem is decentralized in the new world, with no resource monopoly, cutting off the source of the negative and conductive chain; on the other hand, the Gas mechanism is a natural barrier to prevent cheating, which is the basis for large-scale wealth creation. Therefore, it will form a positive cycle of decentralized resources → low-cost innovation → low asset issuance cost → return of wealth creation effect → project parties, participants, and currency prices grow together.
2. Why doesn’t this path just reinvent the wheel and go backwards in history?
Bitcoin itself represents the greatest common divisor of trust. The foundation of cryptocurrency is decentralization, and the purpose of decentralization is permissionless trust and security. I remember a research report by Mint Ventures, "The Underlying Value of Web3", which states that the underlying value of cryptocurrency is "greater freedom and cheaper trust", which is also the advantage of encryption over traditional reliance on intermediaries. The security of Bitcoin, when used by its ecosystem, will bring cheap trust, and the foothold of freedom - innovation, will be reactivated. This is also what has been mentioned repeatedly above - the key to Bitcoin ecology turning the negative-sum game of the currency circle into a positive-sum one.
So "reinventing the wheel" = "reversing history"? It's just a matter of getting back to the original intention.
3. Why is this road moving so fast? Will there be no bear market in the next year?
From the above, we can conclude that the market-proven tracks such as Metaverse, DeFi, NFT, and L2 will explode in the Bitcoin ecosystem. As long as the direction is clear, funds will be more concentrated, unnecessary trial and error costs will be reduced, and development will be faster. In addition, encryption pays more attention to expectations than traditional fields, especially deterministic expectations, and the time for value discovery is shorter. These tracks will go hand in hand with the core assets of the Bitcoin ecosystem, and together they will set off a huge fomo and wealth creation.
4. The current Bitcoin ecosystem has already taken shape:
Core assets (less than 2 billion): $ordi, $sats of the brc20 protocol and $atom, $pipe, $eths/i, etc.
Metaverse (less than 500 million): $bitmap, blue box, etc.
NFT (less than 500 million): frogs, geese, rare satoshis, etc.
Second layer (?): Lightning Network, RGB and other institutional layout
DeFi(？)：unisat-brc20-swap etc
No threshold near skirt v: HUAZT6
Different from ETH’s new direction: there will be
Therefore, there is still a difference of at least two orders of magnitude between market value and narrative ceiling, and the funds are more concentrated. The Bitcoin ecosystem may not have a bear market in the next year. If there is one, please cherish it - this is only a bear market in (month/week) units, and it is difficult to have a bear market in (quarter/year) units. There is a bright future ahead, but the road is full of twists and turns. Never chase high prices, and always make money by selling at a loss.
