Sigh, something went wrong again. Can the crypto market still recover? Let’s take a look:
A single statement from Powell caused the Nasdaq index to crash 3.61%, approaching the largest drop in recent years. Moreover, Powell's hawkish remarks do not stop there! He specifically criticized the crypto space, stating that the Federal Reserve cannot hold Bitcoin, which caused Bitcoin to drop by 5%. It's simply terrible.
This is a hard blow; no one can predict what he said. It’s truly a disaster. Not just retail investors, but even Wall Street can only brace for impact. The main reason for this crash is Powell stating that there won't be too many interest rate cuts next year, possibly just two cuts, leading various assets to decline.
However, the crypto market is doing relatively well; Bitcoin's drop is similar to that of the Nasdaq index, with not too much extra decline. Powell's statement that the Federal Reserve does not hold Bitcoin does not affect Trump's Bitcoin strategic reserves, as strategic reserves are held by the government, not by the Federal Reserve. So on January 20th, when Trump takes office, BTC still has a good chance of becoming a national reserve.
In fact, despite Bitcoin's drastic drop, if you look at the ETF, it still shows significant net inflows. What does this indicate? It shows that Wall Street views this drop as an opportunity to enter rather than exit. There might be some secondary testing of bottoms during this period; don't be afraid; they are all chances to get on board. Once the adjustments are done, the crypto market will restart, and the light will be with everyone!
The biggest opportunity in this wave of crashes should be Doge. I will enter here!
Doge retraced from 0.48 to 0.34, already down 30%. The coin price has undergone sufficient consolidation. The range of 0.33-0.35 is also the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement support for Doge. I think this is an opportunity because in a month, Musk will take over the White House, and there is an 80% chance Doge will surge.
Additionally, I have to diss Powell here; this old guy is really full of it. He said he doesn't support Bitcoin, causing significant turmoil, which led to our Ethereum long positions hitting stop losses. I haven't experienced a stop loss in a long time; thank you very much!
Next, we are left with the relatively illiquid Christmas and New Year. Be patient and wait for bottom-buying opportunities!
As for what to buy at the bottom, still look for previously strong narratives that haven't materialized. I am optimistic about the market after Trump takes office from January to March next year. For stability, focus on ETH, BNB, SOL, and these.
For those looking for aggressive bets, you can choose ACT, PNUT, etc.
For stable investments, meme assets can include: DOGE, PEPE, WIF, FLOKI, etc.
Public chains should choose some well-established ones with decent popularity, such as APT, SOL, SUI.
For the AI sector, choose FET, including WLD, but I am more optimistic about FET, as it has a partnership with DWF for market making, making it less likely for the price to look too bad.
In the Defi sector, the first choice should still be Aave, including Comp. We have zero-cost positions in these. Friends who want to re-enter should wait for lower prices. As for MKR, there’s nothing wrong with it; it just got affected by Ethereum. If you haven't set a stop loss, you can hold it normally while controlling your position and avoiding contracts.
As for the position, it still depends on everyone’s habits. I also suggest that everyone arrange it reasonably. If your allocation is insufficient, you might as well pick a part from the above sectors to layout. As long as the fundamentals and projects are still operating, time will give you answers and bring you some wealth.
Although there was a significant drop in the early hours, the performance data of the ETH ETF can still give us confidence to expect a crazy market ahead. In the face of such negative news for well-known brands, some data has flowed out, but BlackRock alone brought in 80.7 million, single-handedly supporting the entire ETH ETF net inflow. While others are cutting losses, BlackRock is buying the dip.
Therefore, later on, whether ETH breaks through historical highs or surpasses 5000, 8000 will just be a matter of time. The storyline will be exactly the same as BTC. BlackRock's CEO is personally involved in continuously promoting, and behind it, there must be a long-term plan. This is absolute power; we need to be confident.
Next, if ETH is to rise, it still needs to break through the previous trend line at 3850. Only by effectively stabilizing and increasing volume at this position can we see a higher Ethereum! Moreover, in January, there will be FTX compensation, with 16 billion U or fiat compensation, which will flow back into the crypto market, compounded with the resumption of the ETF, making the future market conditions worth looking forward to. Now is not the time to exit.
As mentioned before, every major drop is a good opportunity to enter, and today is no exception. We are in a bull market cycle; however, the market characteristics this year are that it's fast, precise, and ruthless. The pump happens quickly, and the dump also happens quickly. Without innovation or new narratives driving it, the market is hard to sustain. Everyone needs to adapt to this rhythm.
After last night's significant drop, we can clearly see what constitutes valuable coins, quality altcoins, and junk coins. Here are the classifications:
BTC, ETH, SOL, and BNB have not dropped much. (Valuable coins)
BGB (Dark Horse Coin + Valuable Coin) not only didn't drop but also surged! Equivalent to BNB in the last bull market.
There are also a few coins that haven't dropped much, such as: OM, ENA, ONDO, RAY, USUAL, HBAR, SUI, AAVE, XRP (Quality Altcoins). Some AIAgent tokens are rising against the trend, including Fartcoin up 48%, market cap surpassing 1 billion. ARC up 23%, market cap surpassing 220 million; ELIZA up 19%, market cap around 88.5 million. AIXBT up 18%, market cap 275 million. Additionally, coins like vvaifu, degenai, AICell, ai16z, Bully, etc., have all risen over 10%. (Good narratives)
99% of altcoins are in free fall, dropping all over the place! (Junk coins)
Currently, among new coins, only Usual and Move are performing well, while $Usual is still the top gainer on Binance today, reaching an all-time high. No rate cuts favor government bond yields, while rate cuts favor arbitrage yields; stablecoins win massively – it always feels like I bought too little during a stablecoin bull market.
Why do they say that $Usual is a simple money-making model? Look, $Ondo has nearly increased tenfold in the past nine months, suitable for large funds to invest safely. In the future, $Usual will present a Luna-like visual feel; the bull market plays a Ponzi scheme.
Currently, I see another opportunity from $Usual. Holding this fund for another half a year can easily multiply it by 5 times. Behind it, there’s also BlackRock Ethena, which indirectly means having a big boss. The current market cap is still very low, only about one-tenth of $ENA, and it hasn't been listed on Korean exchanges yet. It's only a matter of time before it gets listed on major US exchanges.
The Alpha pool list is here again.
Compared to yesterday, I am more willing to believe that today's selections are from the BN listing team, and they are obviously of much better quality. I have hit six (of course, two of them are still deep in the hole 😂😂😂), but some are still unexpectedly surprising, like Mars City. I had thought it was already gone (is it gone?).
If we don't consider short-term price fluctuations, this Alpha form can indeed provide a screening mechanism for retail investors. Rather than letting retail investors blindly pan for gold in a pile of rubbish, it’s better to provide a preliminary screening and then consider suitable times for secondary speculation (of course, it’s still gold mixed with stones; you need to screen again).
Yesterday, the sentiment on social media regarding this pool was quite negative. To be honest, there were many issues with the first screening and the readiness of the products, including how players participate. I'm not too satisfied, and the community is also complaining privately. However, considering that this product has just been launched, we should observe it a bit longer before making a judgment on its success or failure.
For example, what kind of targets are suitable, what market capitalization range, whether any contracts have been listed on Binance can be considered Alpha? And whether the market recognizes the selected targets? I slowly believe that the product team will gradually sort out some frameworks that satisfy everyone.
Additionally, how to use this screening mechanism to find the most suitable gameplay is something everyone needs to consider. Yesterday, I specifically reminded the community to ambush and to sell news rather than chase after rising prices. Today, it seems the strategy was successful (yes, I made a move again). After the token listing news is announced, leaving the spotlight becomes the next opportunity to buy again.
Different perspectives lead to different analysis methods, but the essentials remain the same. In a bull market, you must find the most Ponzi-like projects and invest heavily.
Don't spend a day looking for 50 passwords; that will just make you hesitate to put in many bullets for each. Focus on a few promising projects and invest over 80% of your energy into them, learning and understanding, so you know what to expect. You won't be easily swayed by others' hype or frightened off by their FUD.
Who has made serious money without heavily investing in a coin that took off? In the last cycle, LUNA made hundreds of millions by holding from the start, while this cycle the small write dog has gained over 10M from laser cats, the ACT wizards, and those who invested in Hyper; these are people I know personally.
Meme is not my main stage, but I really like those like Pendle, ENA, and Usual that need to be assessed by mechanisms. Because not many people are willing to invest time and energy to understand and research, they prefer to follow the crowd.
For example, some people started to question whether that 22,000% APY was a scam yesterday, so many didn't dare to invest.
In fact, this is a misunderstanding of the relationship between APR and APY (Defi old OGs understand). APY is compound interest; an APY of 22,000% is essentially an APR of 500+%. For last night's Usualx with only 1M, it's not exaggerated. I immediately bought on-chain $Usual to stake, and I just calculated the yield for less than 20 hours is 3.5%. Isn't that appealing?
(Of course, now that the withdrawals have started, 33M of Usual has already gone in, and the yield has dropped to 20,000%. It’s a gamble from here on, whether to stake or not, will wait until those who withdraw today settle before calculating.)
To be honest, I initially underestimated $Usual, which caused me to miss the chance for first-level investment. Luckily, I realized in time and went all in. As more mechanisms are revealed, it seems increasingly interesting.
As Hehehe said, if the team is really a bit tougher, continuously driving up the $Usual coin price with the profits and the funds they hold, then the TVL's paper yield will become increasingly high, and the money poured in will continue to rise. The team's TVL income will also rise, and they will continue to push the price up. Isn’t that similar to Luna, where the left foot steps on the right foot? There’s a chance to become the next godly project!
Of course, this is just our own speculation, but at least the market currently shows strong support for $Usual, and the coin price isn't dropping.
I won’t directly give advice on secondary coin prices, as there are risks that easily attract criticism, even though I haven’t sold any yet. But using stablecoins for mining is indeed attractive. Look at the chart below; the risk is relatively low, and stablecoin LP yields are already close to 60%.
There will be many pullbacks in the middle of a bull market. As long as we can get through this wave of pullbacks, we can wait for good market conditions to arrive. The bull market is not over; we can still buy a little on small dips and buy a lot on big dips!
1. PNUT:
The squirrel has already hinted that first, the rise was not as expected, and second, the load was too heavy, requiring a pullback. Currently, it has dropped below 1 dollar, and the range of 0.5-0.7 can be used for some low purchases.
2. JTO:
Just below 3.3, you can buy in batches at a low price. This coin adjusts quickly, and the rebound will also be fast.
3. RSR:
Currently, it is making a second retracement and has fallen below 0.012. Below 0.012, we can look for positions to buy in batches at a low price. This adjustment of RSR has been quite violent, and it is expected that there will be a good upward trend after the adjustment ends.
4. DOGE:
As long as it can maintain a high oscillation above 0.33, there won't be too much to worry about. However, if it drops below 0.33, we may have to see Doge at 0.27. At that time, it will be an excellent opportunity to buy more. Overall, I'm optimistic about Doge; just buy low and hold on!
