Bitcoin quickly reclaimed the key psychological level of 100,000 USD shortly after breaking below the six-figure price level. Is it bearish in the short term?
There are still a few days left until this weekend to 'fully confirm' the downtrend, while 'many things may change.'
Technically speaking, this is still bearish before the weekly candle closes.
This morning, Bitcoin fell below 100,000 USD for the first time since December 13, hitting a low of around 99,047 USD.
Meanwhile, after the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut and hinted that the rate cuts in 2025 might be less than originally planned, the wider cryptocurrency market experienced a sell-off.
For some traders, the drop in Bitcoin's price hasn't caused much concern.
For Bitcoin, this pullback is quite normal. We have seen eight retracements since October.
Technically, this is the 7th week of the price discovery phase, which means that BTC corrections usually occur around this time.
Although many speculators often refer to such a sharp decline as a 'flash crash,' this situation may last at least a week.
In the past, the 7th and 8th weeks of the price discovery phase were correction weeks.
Bitcoin moves slightly, altcoins plunge.
SHIB
Significant selling has occurred in the past few hours, with SHIB whales recently liquidating 250 billion SHIB worth 6.05 million USD.
This giant whale invested 3,800 USD in the SHIB market on August 6, 2020, purchasing 15.28 trillion SHIB, peaking at 1.22 billion USD.
This whale has made a profit of 109 million USD during its holding period but still holds 2.15 trillion SHIB, worth approximately 52.18 million USD.
This sell-off indicates that the behavior of whales may be changing, which usually affects retail market sentiment. Large-scale liquidations could scare off small investors and increase volatility, especially when they occur at key support levels.
From the chart, it can be seen that the price of SHIB has been declining and recently broke below the important 50 EMA, which is usually a strong support.
This segment indicates a lack of bullish momentum and suggests increasing selling pressure. The current trading price of SHIB is approximately 0.0000244 USD, with the next key support levels near 0.00002283 USD and 0.00002045 USD. If these levels cannot hold, a stronger correction could occur.
PEPE
Pepe (PEPE) is the third-largest memecoin by market capitalization globally, currently trading at about 0.00001952 USD, down 10% in the past 24 hours. However, trading volume surged 66% during the same period, indicating increased market activity.
In the past week, PEPE fell 22%, reaching a 22-day low of around 0.00001944 USD. Notably, it set a new ATH of 0.00002825 USD 10 days ago.
Technical analysis shows that PEPE has formed an ascending channel pattern, characterized by higher highs and higher lows, which is a bullish signal. The main resistance levels (R1 and R2) are 0.00002166 USD and 0.00002473 USD, while the support levels (S1 and S2) are 0.00001730 USD and 0.00001568 USD, respectively. The daily relative strength index (RSI) is 43, indicating that PEPE is approaching the oversold area, which may lay the groundwork for a recovery.
In addition, on-chain indicators reinforce the bullish outlook. Coinglass data shows that capital outflows from exchanges have reached 15 million USD over the past two years. These actions typically indicate that long-term holders and whales are moving assets to private wallets, suggesting optimism about the future of the tokens.
Although the market is in a pessimistic state, there are still catalysts worth looking forward to in January next year. On January 20, Trump will officially take office as president. Changes under favorable policies will allow institutions to confidently flow funds into the crypto market, thereby raising the prices of crypto assets.
In addition, there is the FTX compensation in January, with a total of 16 billion USD or fiat currency compensation this year. Some of it will flow back into the crypto space. Coupled with the resumption of the US ETF, it can be seen that the market in January is still worth looking forward to.
Now we can only wait for the market to confirm before entering. We may miss a bit of profit in the early stage, but having already escaped at a phase high is a gain. When everyone is panicking and doubting if the bull is over, it is the time to buy low. The market is always counterintuitive, so avoiding noise and investing based on one's own logic is the best strategy.
