If the Federal Reserve doesn’t buy it, I will.

The market expects that next year the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates and may even raise them. The dot plot for next year is expected to drop from four cuts to two. Will the U.S. stock market and Bitcoin assets enter a new round of decline? Let's not guess blindly. On the contrary, I believe the Federal Reserve is likely to be inconsistent in its words and actions. Don't just look at what they say; pay attention to what they do.

This time, the Federal Reserve met market expectations by cutting rates by 25 basis points. Moreover, regarding the economic forecast for next year, the Federal Reserve is quite confident, raising the U.S. GDP growth rate for 2024 from 2.0% to 2.5%, and only slightly increasing next year's inflation from 2.4% to 2.5%. This means that the U.S. is still a top student. So why does the dot plot appear so hawkish? Why did the previous market prediction of four rate cuts get halved to two? This reflects that the Federal Reserve is currently addressing the two major risks of the future market.