Wednesday is over, fleeting by, and half of the week has passed. The current situation with the USD/JPY is reaching new highs; how has everyone fared? A brief review of today's market: in the morning, influenced by yesterday's surge, the bottom price continued to see a pullback, and the market oscillated downward to around 103,000 to stop the decline. In the afternoon, the market once again oscillated upward, recovering, and in the evening, it faced resistance around 105,000, retreating once more. The market still leans towards a fluctuating pattern, as a strong one-sided movement has already occurred; the reason is clear—interest rate cuts are about to be announced, and the intraday market is also building momentum. Our positions today are mainly focused on short-term trades, with a total of 3,000 points gained in Bitcoin for the day, and a smaller total of 100 points gained in Ethereum. There's no need to boast too much about strength; after all, in such a market, as long as you go long and manage your positions well, making a profit is completely feasible. How to operate depends on your own control.
Currently, I won't provide too much analysis on the market's movements; instead, I will discuss the important points regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rates and Powell's speech tonight. A reduction of 15 basis points is pretty much a given, and the market continues to rise; the data may also be digested in advance, but the movements are still retracing and building momentum. If there is still a 25 basis point cut, it will definitely have some impact on the market. But will the Federal Reserve not cut rates or even raise rates? You can be completely assured about this; it is expected that the 100 basis points of cuts before the year-end will ultimately only leave 25 points. It is impossible to halt halfway; the current cuts can only go further or remain unchanged at a 25 basis point cut. If there really is no rate cut or a rate hike, then market panic and Bitcoin's drop may see a retracement to around 98,000. However, under normal circumstances, a rate cut will not have a significant impact on driving the market; at most, it will replicate yesterday's new high.
Let's talk again about Powell's speech. Old Powell has always been a hawkish speaker, and almost every time he speaks, the market bulls get liquidated. The focus for the last monetary speech in 2024 will still be on the intentions regarding interest rate cuts next year and the important issues of GDP and inflation. If there are not too many plans for Jiangxi next year, it can be considered a bearish signal; only further interest rate cuts would offer a favorable outlook. But everyone shouldn’t panic too much; after all, Trump has already won the election and is about to enter the White House, with Christmas approaching, the cryptocurrency prices are expected not to drop too much. Currently, we still maintain a strategy of accumulating positions at low retracement levels; after all, capital inflow and Trump's favorable attitude towards cryptocurrency mean it won't drop too much.#加密市场盘整 $BTC 
