This week is the last super central bank week of the year, focusing on the interest rate decisions from the U.S. and Japan:
In the U.S., the announcement will be made at 3 AM on Thursday:
After last week's CPI data met expectations, this round of 25 basis points rate cuts was not a surprise, with CME showing a probability of 97%, reflecting that the market has fully digested this expectation. Therefore, even if a rate cut becomes a reality, its direct impact on the stock and crypto markets may no longer be viewed as positive. However, Powell's speech and his outlook for the January FOMC will become the focus of the market. CME data shows an 80% probability of maintaining the interest rate in January, which will be crucial for the upcoming market dynamics.
On the same day, it is also the time for Japan to adjust interest rates:
According to current information, the Bank of Japan is unlikely to raise interest rates in December. This news is a comfort to the market. If Japan insists on raising rates in December, even though the impact is relatively small, it may bring significant psychological pressure to the market. However, the Federal Reserve's response strategy is not hopeless. If Powell can emphasize that rate cuts are not due to a weak U.S. economy, but for more macro considerations, this will send a positive signal to the market, at least avoiding concerns about falling into a recession.
When will it be the turn of altcoins to rise?
Bitcoin has reached a new high, but altcoins are generally in a correction phase, especially the altcoins on CEXs, with 9 out of 10 declining.
Although the total market capitalization of the crypto market has surpassed 3.9 trillion, reaching a new high, this is largely due to Bitcoin's contribution, with Bitcoin's market share also exceeding 57.38%. The funding rates on major CEXs do not support altcoins continuing to rise, generally falling below 0.01%. Typically, a funding rate above 0.01% indicates a bullish market, while below it indicates a bearish outlook.
Ethereum's performance has been relatively stable. Although the ETH/BTC exchange rate is still adjusting, last week, the inflow into Ethereum ETFs reached a new high of $850 million, indicating positive sentiment from external funds towards ETH. Several institutions predict that Ethereum will reach an all-time high by the end of the year, which I also believe is not a big issue, as long as the Ethereum Foundation does not cause any trouble, the ATH is just a piece of paper.
The turnover period for ETH has passed, and this week is the acceleration time. First, let ETH open up space upwards, and then altcoins will follow the rise. The ETH that's being pumped has become much clearer!
Although Bitcoin is currently dominant, and many people have lost confidence in altcoins again, I am very optimistic about the future:
This is just the beginning! There are still several waves of good news from December to March that will drive the increase. Don't be influenced by those bearish sentiments; every day it's either bearish to 80k, 70k, or a black swan super crash. If you're so bearish in a bull market, I advise you to exit early and stop playing.
Recently, altcoins have seen a slight adjustment, but after the adjustment, they will continue to rebound. In this case, it is not recommended to chase high coins; instead, look for strong coins that have adjusted for a month or have sharply declined; the opportunities are significant.
Investing, as I always say, find what makes you feel secure, look for the right price point, and have sufficient value and faith — this is the most suitable method for ordinary people. Cost-effectiveness is very important; buying at a price that makes you feel at ease allows you to hold on patiently. Don't let market fluctuations affect your enjoyment of life; otherwise, it's unnecessary and goes against the essence of investing, which is to make life happier, not more haggard.
A good buying price makes it easy to take profits when selling. Remember that?
If you don't want to flounder around like a headless fly and hope to gain several times in the bull market, now is the best time.
If you don't want to miss out, leave 168 in the comments, and I'll guide you through the whole process, making it easy for you to get on board and enjoy the bull market profits together!
