Bitfinex Alpha: Bitcoin is still in a bull market phase, but far from reaching its peak

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The current trading price of Bitcoin exceeds $107,000, but analysts at the cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex state that the asset is still far from reaching a "delightful peak." The historical data cited by the analysts indicates that the cryptocurrency market is in the mid-phase of a bull market, which may peak in the third or fourth quarter of 2025, approximately 450 days after the halving in April 2024.

In a weekly report detailing expectations for Bitcoin's price in 2025, Bitfinex analysts stated that due to diminishing returns moderating the levels of price increases seen in previous cycles, Bitcoin's price could peak at either $339,000 or $145,000.

Bitcoin has risen 573% from the bear market low of $15,487 in November 2022 and has increased 130% so far this year. The driving forces behind this bull market are strong institutional demand, spot accumulation, and ongoing purchases of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Spot ETFs are currently considered the dominant force in the Bitcoin market, with product holdings exceeding 1.13 million BTC and cumulative inflows exceeding $50 billion.

With institutional investors and the spot Bitcoin ETF market driving demand for BTC, analysts expect the adjustments in this bull market to be relatively small. Data from previous cycles also shows that after BTC enters the price discovery phase following a halving, the adjustments are minimal. In 2017, the maximum drop during such a phase was 33.2%, while the minimum drop in the 2020 cycle was 27.1%.

This means that BTC could peak at $160,000 or $200,000 by mid-2025, or in a less likely scenario, reach $290,000 by early 2026.

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