Bitcoin Market Analysis
The price of Bitcoin recently continues to break through, currently around $107,000. From the chart, the short-term moving averages have retraced after reaching the $108,000 mark, facing a counterattack from bears. However, overall, Bitcoin is still within a consolidation range and solidifying around $106,000.
The long-term trend for Bitcoin remains upward, and Bitcoin is still in an upward channel, not having broken below the channel's lower edge. If the price further retraces to the lower edge of the channel, it may face greater risks. Currently, the short-term moving averages are contracting, and if the short-term moving averages cross the long-term moving averages, it could bring significant pressure.
Interpretation of Microsoft's voting results
Microsoft shareholders voted down the company’s proposal to purchase Bitcoin, and this result was not surprising. Prior to the voting, predictions on Polymarket indicated that the likelihood of buying Bitcoin was only 9%. This result reflects the resistance of large institutions to uncertainty, which is understandable from a business logic perspective.
As the saying goes—'A big ship is hard to turn around', transformations in large institutions often occur slowly. Take Kodak as an example; this once-great film giant failed to transform in time during the rise of digital technology, despite being one of the earliest inventors of digital photography technology. Due to the high profits from film business, its choice obscured this innovation. A similar logic applies to Microsoft, as an industry giant, its shareholders and management are more inclined to maintain the status quo rather than venture into new fields.
In contrast, smaller companies are more willing to embrace innovation, such as MicroStrategy. These companies typically have average business performance, so they are more willing to explore new breakthroughs. Similarly, for individual investors, whether to choose Bitcoin often depends on their life situation. If life is worry-free, people are generally reluctant to take risks; but if they face pressure or a sense of crisis, they may choose high-risk assets like Bitcoin as a hedge.
Microsoft's vote against purchasing Bitcoin is not necessarily a bad thing from another perspective. It leaves a time window for the market, blocking a number of large institutions that might follow Microsoft's lead. In a sense, this gives early holders more time to accumulate assets.
Top Ten Predictions for the Cryptocurrency Industry in 2025 Below are the predictions for the cryptocurrency industry in 2025:
The price of Bitcoin breaking through $200,000: the possibility is very high, and doubling Bitcoin's price is not difficult.
Bitcoin ETF attracts more funds: a larger capital inflow is expected than in 2024.
Coinbase stock rises.
Five cryptocurrency unicorns list in the US: the regulatory environment may be friendlier after Trump took office.
The number of countries holding Bitcoin doubles: led by the US, other countries may rush to follow.
Coinbase enters the S&P 500, MicroStrategy enters the NASDAQ 100.
The US Department of Labor relaxes 401(k) plans, allowing inclusion of crypto assets.
Market cap of stablecoins doubles: demand for stablecoins will continue to grow as new funds enter.
Tokenized RWA assets reach $50 billion: this trend aligns with the current regulatory bull market logic.
Bitcoin price reaches $1 million by 2029: while it will take time, it is highly likely to be achieved.
Most of these predictions may be realized by 2025. The goal of Bitcoin breaking through $1 million may not be achieved in this bull market, but it is almost certain to happen by 2029.
Concerns About Quantum Computing Recently, Google released a new chip, and quantum computing technology has once again sparked discussions about the security of Bitcoin. Some are worried that quantum computing may crack Bitcoin's encryption algorithms. However, experts say it will be decades before quantum computing could pose a threat to Bitcoin. For current Bitcoin holders, this is not a concern in the short term.
Dispute over Bitcoin and energy consumption Recently, reports indicate that the power consumption of the AI industry has surpassed that of Bitcoin mining companies. Many people have criticized Bitcoin mining for its power consumption, but this criticism overlooks a premise—namely, the value of Bitcoin. Once the value of Bitcoin is acknowledged, its power consumption becomes a reasonable cost. Compared to the energy consumption of traditional financial systems and artificial intelligence, Bitcoin does not have a significant disadvantage.
In summary, quoting a master investor:
Bitcoin is used to protect wealth.
Ethereum is used for investment.
Solana is used for gambling.
This viewpoint is concise and very accurate.
