Is the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting about to kick off a frenzied bull market?
Next Thursday morning, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting is about to begin, and the market is almost certain that it will cut rates by 25 basis points. About 6 hours before the meeting, the market's calm is often broken, and volatility quietly rises. Since this rate cut aligns with market expectations, it is likely to become a driving force for the market to rise, rather than a negative shock. In this context, from an investment strategy perspective, buying on dips remains a wise choice, and when the market rebounds, selling appropriately can yield some profit.
On December 19th, Japan will also hold its interest rate meeting during the day. The outcome of this meeting is also highly anticipated. If Japan decides not to raise interest rates and the market's expectations for a rate hike in January are relatively weak, the stock market is expected to experience a significant upward trend. Recently, there have been reports that Japan may postpone its rate hike plans until March next year. From a broader cyclical perspective, the actual time frame that may trigger a significant market adjustment could be around March to May. The "major adjustment" referred to here indicates the space accumulated from the market's rise between November 5 and March, which is expected to retract by 32% to 38%, and this adjustment is likely to present itself in a weekly adjustment pattern.
From the short-term market performance perspective, there are currently no obvious signs of a significant adjustment, suggesting that there is a high probability of no deep adjustments between December and March. Based on this, investors can continue to adhere to the strategy of buying on dips without excessive concern about short-term market volatility. However, in the current market environment, the only risk factor that needs close attention is whether Japan will raise interest rates. If Japan's rate hike decision exceeds market expectations, it may trigger fluctuations in market sentiment and adjustments in asset prices in a localized manner. Investors should prepare in advance to respond to such scenarios, allowing for flexible adjustments to investment strategies in a complex and changing market, achieving stable preservation and appreciation of assets.
Personal Situation: I hold a large number of long ETH positions, mainly in the meme, AI, and oracle sectors. This morning, BTC hit a new high, and Ethereum is frequently encountering resistance at the 4000 mark. If Bitcoin stabilizes, it will drive altcoins to surge, and it's perfectly fine to buy altcoins in the spot market at this time.
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