Bitcoin's Seven Consecutive Gains; S&P Stops Three-Week Uptrend; A Major Wave of Monetary Policy Approaches Next Week; The Market Holds Its Breath
This week, Bitcoin saw a strong rise for seven consecutive weeks, setting a record for the longest streak since 2021, while traditional markets showed signs of fatigue.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 1.82%.
The S&P 500 index slightly decreased by 0.64%, ending a three-week uptrend.
The Nasdaq rose slightly by 0.34%.
However, next week is the true critical moment for the market. As the last significant monetary policy week of 2024 approaches, major central banks and economic data will take center stage, and investors will undoubtedly focus intently. Below are the key time points.
Key Event Schedule
Monday at 15:30, ECB President Lagarde will give a speech.
Tuesday at 4:45 AM, Bank of Canada Governor Macklem will speak.
Thursday at 3:00 AM, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision and economic outlook summary.
Thursday at 3:30 AM, Powell will hold a press conference; the market's direction will hinge on his words.
Thursday, time TBD, the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision.
Friday at 9:30 PM, the U.S. will release the third-quarter GDP revision and the December Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index.
Focus: Core Economic Data Release
November PCE Data, Friday; this is the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, expected to rise 0.2% month-over-month, the smallest increase in three months, which may signal a rate cut from the Fed.
November Retail Sales Data, Tuesday; this data will reveal whether the consumer market can still support economic resilience.
Speculations on Fed Dynamics
CME FedWatch data shows that the market believes there is a 96% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, with only a 4% chance of maintaining the current rate. Rate cut expectations have essentially settled in, but Powell's remarks may stir up further waves.
Note: Whether it's the adjustment risk after Bitcoin's consecutive gains or the potential storm sensitivity of traditional markets, next week is destined to be a battleground of bulls and bears. Understanding the trend and mastering the rhythm is the survival rule that keeps one standing in this market.
