Americans all want to lower it, but the Federal Reserve can't hold it down.

According to Jinshi, analyst Megan Leonhardt said that despite the failure to make progress in curbing inflation in November, federal funds futures show that there is almost a 100% chance that Fed policymakers will cut the benchmark interest rate by another 25 basis points. The rationale for the rate cut may depend on the Fed officials' desire to align the benchmark interest rate with the current economic conditions, as inflation has fallen sharply from its peak in 2022 and the previously tight labor market is normalizing. But don't be surprised if next week's rate cut is accompanied by Powell's forward guidance, suggesting that the Fed will seek to pause rate cuts at the beginning of the year. Not only does the Fed have to control inflation in the final stage, but many fiscal policy outcomes in the coming year may change the direction of inflation. In addition, there are indeed some weak spots in the labor market that deserve careful observation. All of this poses directional challenges to the Fed in the coming months, and policymakers may avoid acting at an alarming speed.