The probability of a market rally during Christmas and New Year has always been the highest in previous years, as retail investors and small institutions need money for the holidays, making the market lightest during the rally.

After looking at Binance Square, there is a great divergence regarding whether BTC will pull back or rise around Christmas. One side believes that from Christmas to New Year's Day is the New Year in Europe and America, and everyone will sell off to take money for the holidays. The other side believes that Christmas and New Year's Day are after the third interest rate cut, and they are major holidays that require a rally to create a festive atmosphere. For long-term investors, these two points are the most conventional thoughts. What do you think?

Let's discuss the logic. Those who hold the first viewpoint are purely speculating on the market from the perspective of the institutional investors, and I think you need to consider these questions: Is it really true that from Christmas to New Year's Day, the market will be sluggish with no trading? What impact does retail selling and taking money for the holidays have on the market? In the past few years, there have been numerous rallies from Christmas to New Year's Day; how do you explain that? The main players sometimes don't take a break even on Sundays and still rally; are you aware of that?

Those who hold the second viewpoint are correctly assessing the current market situation. The principle is simple: don't overly speculate on the thoughts of the institutional investors. A bull market is straightforward; it will only truly start to pull back after all the good news has been released. December 18th is the last interest rate cut of the year, and it will release the roadmap for next year's interest rate cuts in advance; this positive expectation has an inertia effect. On the medium-term, there won’t be any significant deep adjustments at least until January 20th when Trump is officially inaugurated. Moreover, the week before and after the Chinese New Year has historically been a time for major market movements, so overall, there isn’t much demand for adjustment from December to February. The only thing the bulls need to pay attention to is the expectation of Japan raising interest rates. As far as I know, the Bank of Japan is considering postponing interest rate hikes at the next monetary policy meeting. This negative expectation has basically been eliminated within this month.

Currently, the BTC market is performing very healthily; the 4-hour chart has not shown any signs of deterioration. If you are speculating that there will be a crash, and that it will drop after January 10th, that seems a bit far-fetched. The logic of a bull market is different from that of a small bull market; buying on dips should not be done hesitantly.