Let’s talk about yesterday. Yesterday I saw a pullback and provided several positions. The first time I confirmed the short and made some gains, the second time I continued to be bearish but got stopped out, balancing out. Currently holding a short around 102500.
After the ideas were given yesterday, during the operation process, I suggested shorting the altcoin at 3930, adding to the short at 3960, with a stop-loss at 3988. All three intervals faced tests, and during the first wave of decline, I made some gains, and after the rebound, I also took some space. However, the second round of shorting caused the Bitcoin stop-loss to be triggered, resulting in a balance. The following is the operation at that time. Currently, I’m looking bearish! On Friday, there was a squeeze upwards with volume, but there are still three moving averages below that need testing. Imagine, since Bitcoin previously surged, it clearly reached 102500; if it surges again, it could liquidate a massive amount of chips!
If there is liquidation, it could even reach around 115000. Why stop at that point? It indicates heavy selling pressure and is not in a hurry to rise; short-term conditions do not support a rise either. It’s just that short-term positive news has led to this.
At that time, the worst outcome for Bitcoin would be if it faced heavy selling pressure, which would truly be a reversal. Right now, it’s still just a rebound, and there’s no need to worry too much; there’s nothing to worry about. It’s the weekend now, and the movements are just balancing indicators; hoping for a weekend surge is still quite unlikely. The hourly indicators for Bitcoin indicate that there is space above and buying demand; whether it’s worth it is subjective. Yicheng believes this position is not suitable for buying, and short positions remain held. Looking at the altcoin trend, it has already diverged from Bitcoin, and the structure given in the afternoon has signs of being a trap, as it can form many paths. Bitcoin still needs to test the upward channel, while the altcoin is showing signs of building up, which clearly indicates a higher likelihood of a trap.
The altcoin is generally in a downward pullback channel. Without a downward spike or sufficient trading volume to build, it will not break upward. Recently, I remain bearish, but due to the aggressive momentum, I’m hesitant to be overly bearish. The second round of shorts was stopped out, and part of it exceeded the amount turned long, making the risk-reward ratio unfavorable. It’s suggested to short at 102500 or in batches.
This round of rebound at 102500 is likely the final liquidation. Right now, entering can balance out; synchronize with Ethereum, or short from the range of 3940-3950, looking toward a pullback. Bitcoin's pullback looks toward around 98500, while the altcoin looks downward in batches to 3850-3820. Plan stop-loss based on your position.