Bitcoin Breaks $100k, Next $200K?
A few weeks ago, Bitcoin made history by breaking through the price of $103,000 or around Rp1.63 billion (assuming an exchange rate of Rp15,865 per US dollar), reaching an all-time high (ATH). This price surge has become a major concern for global crypto investors and traders.
The price of Bitcoin that has skyrocketed again certainly did not just happen. There are several factors that influence it, ranging from changes in regulatory policies to the increasing adoption of new technologies related to digital currency. In this article, we will discuss some of the main factors that have driven the price of Bitcoin to an all-time high and how experts predict the price of Bitcoin in the future.
Inflow ETF Bitcoin
One of the main factors that has fueled the surge in Bitcoin prices is the increasing amount of money entering the crypto market through Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). Bitcoin ETFs make it easy for investors to invest in Bitcoin without having to buy or hold Bitcoin directly. This opens the door for institutional investors who were previously hesitant to get involved in the crypto market, mainly due to regulatory and security concerns.
With the increasing acceptance of Bitcoin ETFs by regulators, many institutional funds have started flowing into the Bitcoin market. This has certainly pushed the price of Bitcoin up, due to the increasing demand from large investors. With more and more companies and financial institutions starting to look at Bitcoin, the prospects for the future of Bitcoin are getting brighter. This of course has a direct impact on the price of Bitcoin which continues to rise.
Donald Trump's victory
Donald Trump's victory in the 2024 US presidential election also had a major impact on the Bitcoin market. During the campaign, Trump promised to support the cryptocurrency industry by providing more crypto-friendly policies. One of the promises that caught quite a bit of attention was to fire Gary Gensler, the Chairman of the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) who is known for his tough approach to the crypto industry.
Under Gensler’s leadership, the SEC has cracked down on many crypto companies and issued regulations that are considered quite burdensome. Gensler even called the crypto industry “rife with scams and scammers.” For many investors, these tough policies add uncertainty and create obstacles to the development of the crypto market.
However, with Trump re-elected, many are hoping for a change in policy. One of the most anticipated changes is the appointment of Paul Atkins as the new SEC Chairman.
Paul Atkins As New SEC Chairman
The appointment of Paul Atkins as the new SEC Chairman has been welcomed by many, especially those who support the development of cryptocurrencies. Atkins is known to be more open to the potential of blockchain technology and crypto, and many hope that regulatory policies under his leadership will be more supportive of innovation and wider adoption of crypto.
Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, one of the leading crypto companies in the US, even stated that Atkins' appointment will help create a "clearer regulatory path" that could accelerate Bitcoin's integration into the mainstream financial market. If the market feels more secure with more supportive regulations, there will undoubtedly be more investors coming in, which in turn will push the price of Bitcoin even higher.
Bitcoin Halving
Bitcoin has a system called "halving" which occurs every four years, where the amount of Bitcoin mining per block will be reduced by half. This halving aims to regulate inflation and reduce the supply of Bitcoin circulating in the market. This year has been the fourth halving and has the potential to increase the price of Bitcoin because the supply is limited while demand continues to rise. History shows that after each halving, the price of Bitcoin tends to spike sharply.
Bitcoin Price Prediction in 2025
After breaking through $100,000, many analysts have begun to predict that Bitcoin could continue to increase in price in 2025. Some analyses and predictions of Bitcoin's future price vary widely, depending on the model used and external factors affecting the market.
a. Geoff Kendrick (Head of Digital Assets Research di Standard Chartered Bank)
Geoff Kendrick, an analyst at Standard Chartered Bank, confidently predicts that Bitcoin will reach $200,000 by the end of 2025. He noted that the continued influx of institutional funds into the Bitcoin market will be the main driving factor for this price increase. The increasing adoption of Bitcoin by large companies and financial institutions is expected to further strengthen Bitcoin's position as a major asset in the global market.
b. Markus Thielen (CEO 10x Research)
Markus Thielen uses a “power law” model to analyze the price of Bitcoin. Based on this model, Thielen predicts that the price of Bitcoin will reach a minimum of $157,346, with a target high of $315,323. The power law model takes the historical price of Bitcoin and projects the price based on its growth pattern, which suggests that the price of Bitcoin has the potential to reach this range in this cycle. Thielen also notes that in previous price cycles, Bitcoin has often reached 3-4 times the base level.
c. André Dragosch (Director of Research at Bitwise)
Bitwise analyst André Dragosch also shared Kendrick’s similar view. Dragosch predicted that Bitcoin could reach around $200,000 by the end of 2025. He highlighted two main factors that will drive the price of Bitcoin higher: the adoption of Bitcoin as a reserve asset by large corporations and governments, and the impact of the Bitcoin halving that will occur in April 2024. The halving reduces the supply of new Bitcoin available in the market, creating a supply shortage that exacerbates demand pressures.
Dragosch also stated that clearer regulation in the US in 2025 will give a big boost to altcoins (cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin), which could change the dynamics of the market. He predicted that altcoins, such as Ethereum, could surpass Bitcoin in their performance in 2025, although Bitcoin will still maintain its position as the market leader.
d. Gautam Chhugani
Bernstein’s Gautam Chhugani predicts Bitcoin will hit $200,000 by the end of 2025. In his note cited by Yahoo Finance, Chhugani noted that the selection of crypto advocate Paul Atkins to lead the SEC under Trump 2.0, along with a more crypto-friendly regulatory direction, will be key catalysts for the industry’s growth. The move is believed to boost investor confidence and strengthen Bitcoin’s position as a leading asset in the global market. Additionally, Trump announced the appointment of David Sacks as the White House’s Chief Crypto and AI Officer, which is seen as a significant step in supporting the growth of the crypto ecosystem.
Conclusion
Bitcoin has reached $103,000 in December 2024, an impressive milestone in the crypto journey. Although the cryptocurrency market remains volatile and full of uncertainty, many analysts are optimistic that Bitcoin will continue to rise, with predictions that the price could reach $200,000 or even more by the end of 2025.
With factors such as more supportive regulatory policies, increasing institutional adoption, and the reduction in Bitcoin supply through halving, there is no denying that Bitcoin has great potential to continue growing. However, like any other investment, the price of Bitcoin is heavily influenced by various external factors and global market movements, so there are still risks that investors should be aware of.
https://www.binance.com/en/price/bitcoin
Risk Disclaimer: Cryptocurrency prices are subject to high market risk and price volatility. You should only invest in products that you are familiar with and where you understand the associated risks. You should carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives and risk tolerance and consult an independent financial adviser prior to making any investment. This material should not be construed as financial advice. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The value of your investment can go down as well as up, and you may not get back the amount you invested. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions
