Referring to the historical bull market BTC cycle, before the altcoin season, there is a simple capital flow: BTC → ETH → large-cap coins → mid/small-cap coins → almost all coins start to go crazy → the bull market ends and enters a long bear market phase.
The altcoin season usually presents a more typical startup path, generally starting from the following aspects:
Some innovative projects will start to rise first, representing: SUI
Some MEME coins and various air coins will start to rise, representing: PNUT/PEPE/VIRTUAL
Some undervalued veteran altcoins continue to rise, representing: XRP/XLM/TRX/OM (best-performing altcoins)
All altcoins are skyrocketing, and the market enters a crazy state (this is also a huge warning signal, the so-called extreme reaction).
BTC's dominance has pulled back from a high of 61% to around 55%, and Bitcoin's dominance has obvious resistance at the 55% level.
The altcoin season index has also reached 71 and is about to reach the altcoin season indicator of 75. In the past 90 days, among the top 50 tokens, 35 have outperformed Bitcoin, accounting for as much as 70%!
According to our statistics, among the top 50 tokens by market capitalization, only 11 have surpassed their historical highs (including this new batch of coins). They are: XRP, OM, WBT, TRX, RENDER, LEO, BTC, SOL, BNB, etc.
So don't hesitate any longer. Hold your altcoins tightly; we only need to focus on the dominant position of Bitcoin. If it drops below 50% in one day, altcoins will experience a historic breakout and soar!
But will all altcoins soar?
Question 1:
In the bull market of 2021, the total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market reached a peak of $2.8 trillion, with the total market capitalization of altcoins reaching as high as $1.6 trillion. As Bitcoin (the big coin) rose from the previous high of $20,000 to $60,000, the total market capitalization of altcoins soared from $200 billion to $1.6 trillion, an increase of about 8 times.
The current international cryptocurrency market capitalization is $3.8 trillion, with a change of 0.53% in the past 24 hours and a change of 135.66% in the past year. As of today, Bitcoin (BTC) has a market capitalization of $2 trillion, and Bitcoin's dominance is 52.41%. Meanwhile, the market capitalization of stablecoins is $200 billion, accounting for 5.38% of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization. Assuming you still believe that the total market capitalization of altcoins can increase by 8 times, then the future total market capitalization of altcoins would need to reach $12 trillion. If we assume BTC.D is at 40%, then the highest total market capitalization in a bull market would need to reach $19 trillion. This is more than 5 times the last bull market, and subtracting the current $3.8 trillion means we need an additional $15 trillion in liquidity. So, where will such a huge amount of funds come from?
Question 2:
You might think that many altcoins have not increased in price, but from another perspective, they have actually risen quite a bit. Take ARB as an example; from a price performance perspective, ARB seems to have little rise, and its price trend even looks a bit like a stablecoin. However, from the perspective of market capitalization, ARB's market cap has increased by over a billion dollars in the past year. This is because its token circulation has risen from an initial 12.75% to the current 26.5%.
For those tokens with a high fully diluted valuation (FDV), even if their prices do not seem to rise significantly, maintaining their market capitalization still requires a large number of investors (capital) to support it. There are currently many popular projects with high FDV in the market, and if you still expect these high FDV new projects to rise tenfold or even a hundredfold, one must wonder where such massive funds will come from.
Therefore, this bull market will not rise across the board like in 2021. The altcoin season only belongs to certain tokens. Finding suitable targets also requires some luck.
If you are afraid of missing the altcoin season, the only thing you can do is find a high-value entry point and set a stop loss. As for whether it can break the historical high, luck is very important.
So what trading opportunities do we still have? 👇👇👇
