And finally, it happened: the first daily candle closed with a full body above the coveted 100K mark. But, as they say, the joy was short-lived. Instead of a triumphant rally towards 110K, the market froze in anxious anticipation: what if we go below again?
At the moment, the situation looks like a classic retest from top to bottom. Everyone who was shouting about a ‘breakout’ is starting to get nervous: will buyers have enough strength to defend the new threshold? Let’s see what happens if they don’t.
Under the roller and down: the scenario of a failure below 100K
Imagine, BTC slowly falls back below the 100K level. Buyers try to support it, but it seems they have run out of money (or faith in a bright future). As a result, BTC plunges to 95K, leaving behind only the ashes of hopes.
At this level, the bulls have one last chance to correct something. But if we break through 95K, the next stop will be 90K. Yes, it’s not a catastrophe like in 2018, but it’s painful enough to crush all euphoria. However, who knows—maybe there will be an army of fans ready to defend the ‘psychological level’ of 90K like a last bastion.
Bearish celebration
If the consolidation at 100K was met with the sound of trumpets, then a return below will be accompanied by the smirks of bears. Vintage analysts will start throwing around phrases like ‘we predicted this back at 50K’. Twitter will explode with memes of falling planes, and Telegram channels for traders will be filled with a series of ‘shorts’.
And what’s next? A reasonable question. A return below 100K is not just a technical failure. It’s a signal that the market is not ready to move up. Institutional investors, who just started to look at BTC again, may change their minds. And retail investors who bought during the ‘hype’ will find themselves in a bind.
So, should we panic?
If BTC falls below 100K again, it will be a powerful blow to the current market picture. Perhaps we’ll bounce back from 95K, but no one guarantees that it will be that ‘second chance’. In any case, time will tell. Meanwhile, we watch as Bitcoin stands at the threshold, as if in front of a locked door.
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