1. Acquaintances start asking about cryptocurrency
• I don't know how accurate this signal is, but it did appear at the peaks of my last two bull markets. If your friends or family start asking about cryptocurrency, we might be at the end of the cycle rather than just beginning.
2. Social media boasting trend
• Luxury cars, high-end watches, parties. Everyone is flaunting their profits, making others feel like they missed out.
• Meanwhile, obvious greed fills social media. Risk management is thrown aside, and people only discuss how to invest for the next amazing return.
3. Market stops rising with positive news
• Regardless of the type of positive news, prices no longer rise and may even start to fall.
• Conversely, any negative news will sharply lower prices. This may indicate weaknesses in market structure and could signal the end of the bull market phase.
4. Market structure breakdown
• This is a significant indicator. When the upward trend ends and lower highs and lows begin to appear, I become more conservative.
• This situation could indicate a consolidation phase after an increase or suggest that a potential downtrend is about to form.
• A breakdown in market structure could also mean a recovery of the upward trend after a correction.
5. Cryptocurrency applications capture market attention
• Cryptocurrency applications topping the app store charts indicate that retail investors are entering the market, at which point the market is no longer 'early'. While the market may continue to rise, it might be suitable for profit-taking now.
• Search trends are also potential signals. If the search volume for keywords hits historical highs, it could indicate we are at the end of a bull market.
6. Market is generally bullish
• When the market turns bullish after a bear market, those who previously suffered losses often remain skeptical of the rise. Many are traumatized by the previous cycle and habitually think the market will decline further.
• If there are no bearish sentiments around at this time, it could be a sign that the market is overheated.
7. Cryptocurrency and news
• Complementary to the previous point. Cryptocurrencies frequently appear in the news, primarily featuring positive messages. People call it the future, and traditional media and companies try to profit from it.
• During the peak frenzy, few question it. Most people are bullish, believing the market can go even higher.
8. People resign to invest in cryptocurrency
• Newcomers may suddenly talk about resigning to trade cryptocurrency full-time after making a lot of money. They become overly confident, believing every trade is profitable and that work is no longer worth it.
• When project funding is ample, many job vacancies appear in the market.
9. Rise of old projects
• This may not be a sign of the end of the bull market, but it could signal a local top.
• Old projects often experience a surge at the end of the cycle, followed by a brief correction. I wouldn't view this as a signal, but it can serve as an observation.
10. Exaggerated price predictions
• At this stage, people make outrageous price predictions to justify the rationale for long-term holding. The fact is, no one knows where the cycle peak will be.
• Don't try to predict the future; instead, start viewing events from the perspective of probabilities and risk/reward. I don't pretend to know where the top is; I only determine my risk tolerance based on probabilities.
