Morning Review: As long as Bitcoin does not drop, altcoins will enter the second phase of the bull market with a significant rally, followed by a pullback of several times!
Bitcoin consolidated above 100,000 for a whole day yesterday. Early this morning, it dipped but did not break below the lower edge of the channel, and it is still close to 100,000! In previous content, the Shepherd mentioned the 100,000 threshold multiple times and pointed out that the Fibonacci level of Bitcoin's major cycle is at around 102,500, which has very strong resistance. Bitcoin did not last long at this position, and we saw a pullback after three consecutive breaks above.
Currently, in the short term, we just need to closely monitor whether it can stabilize above 100,000. The Shepherd's view remains unchanged: Bitcoin will continue to oscillate upward in this range before a major pullback occurs. The reason is that since Bitcoin has risen from 60,000, it has been under substantial bullish leverage, and many profit-taking positions have not exited yet! When subsequent funds are insufficient, Bitcoin will inevitably pull back!#比特币行情
Looking ahead, the upward breakout position is between 102,500 and 116,000, which is my viewpoint! As long as Bitcoin remains stable above 100,000, we can consider that the second phase of altcoin rally is coming, and funds will begin to rotate into altcoins. At this point, it is more about considering exiting altcoins because no one can catch the tail end! So yesterday, the Shepherd already exited LINK from his holdings! When you have made 5 times on an altcoin, I suggest considering exiting, especially for some established altcoins. Many people fantasize about these old coins directly exploding by dozens or even hundreds of times. I believe this situation may occur, but the risks we take will be enormous. You need to consider whether you can bear this kind of major pullback! Have you accepted the risks associated with such a pullback? Intraday Bitcoin: If the 4H midline at 98,700 does not break, we can consider entering! Currently, the bullish accumulation has reached about 14.3 billion! The bullish trend is still very strong! Do not short in a bull market; do not go against the trend! We can look for pullbacks but definitely do not enter short positions! The timing for shorting is not yet here!
ETH: Yesterday we exited ETH at 3650, the exit position was at 3900 and then we placed an order at 3860 for a quick rebound, which we just hit! Let me explain why we chose this position to enter. We are looking at the 4H chart, where we can see that ETH faced resistance twice and did not break through 4000. So, when it retraced, we decided to exit at 3900. The reason we placed the order at 3860 overnight is that the 3848-3860 range is right above this key level. At that time, when ETH was still above 3900, we made this decision, and it quickly rebounded to the 3840 level! Although we did not catch the lowest point, it does not affect our entry this time! ETH is still weak, currently operating at a major resistance level. If it does not stabilize above 4000, we will continue to focus on short-term trading!
Regarding altcoins: I have mentioned the lending sector's COMP and AAVE multiple times, including in earlier videos that specifically discussed altcoins. Why is the lending sector the catalyst for the bull market? When the market rises unilaterally, players may not want to take on the risk due to their insufficient assets, so they will choose to borrow coins. AAVE and COMP within this lending sector have the best mechanisms; they each have their own characteristics. People are not borrowing AAVE and COMP directly; rather, through these two platforms, lenders earn interest while borrowers obtain loans! Therefore, when COMP was at 38 and AAVE was below 100, I mentioned in public content that everyone should pay attention to their allocation! I emphasized that the start of the bull market would first involve the lending sector, which is the reason! When you observe that the overall borrowing pledge rate is gradually decreasing, you need to pay attention to the fact that the bull market may have peaked because profit-taking has begun! This moment is one of the decision-making bases for exiting at the peak!
