We often hear stories about someone turning a small investment into a fortune—like the person who made $100,000 by betting just $100.
But what you don’t hear are the countless others who risked thousands and lost it all. In fact, after analyzing over 40,000 cryptocurrencies over the past decade, we found that only 1.7% have delivered a 100x return.
The Harsh Truth
It’s easy to get caught up in the dream of striking it rich with crypto. Stories like someone turning $17 into nearly $6 million or Coinbase’s CEO saying that $100 in Bitcoin back in the early days would be worth $1.5 million today make it seem like huge returns are within reach for everyone. But the reality is, most of us will never see those kinds of gains. Right now, more than 2.1 million people are actively looking for the next big crypto breakout.
But what are the actual odds of getting a 100x return? And what’s the likelihood you’ll lose everything?
Of the 40,000+ coins that have traded on exchanges over the past 10 years, only 38% are still in existence today. So, before even thinking about profits, the odds of the coin you invest in sticking around for the long haul are about 1 in 3.
How Likely is a 100x Return?
While there have been coins that briefly spiked, like the Hawk-coin, expecting to find one of these rare opportunities is unrealistic. For a more practical approach, we applied a $10 million market cap minimum and focused only on coins that appeared in the top 100 by market cap.
Here’s what we found: Over the past 10 years, 9,502 coins met our criteria. Of these, only 442 (about 4.6%) delivered a 100x return at their peak. However, if you held onto those coins long-term, only 160 would have still provided that kind of return.
So, the chance of seeing a 100x return from a coin you invest in is just 1.7%. And if we exclude duplicates—since some coins appeared in multiple months—only 38 out of 460 unique coins (8%) reached 100x, and just 8 coins (1.7%) continued to deliver that return by 2024.
What Does This Mean for You?
If you’re banking on achieving a 100x return with a 2% chance of success, it’s important to reassess your strategy. You should also read up on the Kelly Criterion, which helps you determine the optimal investment size and risk management.
For those still determined to try their luck, here’s what you should keep in mind:
1. Understand the odds: Your chances of hitting a 100x return are less than 1 in 50. To put that in perspective, it’s like trying to pick a specific card from a shuffled deck on your first attempt.
2. Diversify your investments: The best way to improve your chances is to stay in the game longer. By diversifying your investments and carefully managing your bet sizes, you can reduce risk and increase your chances of a positive outcome.
