📊 U.S. November CPI and Core CPI Generally Meet Expectations, Market Sees Increased Probability of Fed Interest Rate Cuts in December and January
According to the latest released data, the year-on-year Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the U.S. in November was 2.7%, in line with market expectations, slightly up from the previous value of 2.6%. At the same time, the year-on-year Core CPI for the U.S. in November was 3.3%, also meeting expectations, unchanged from the previous value. This data indicates that while the overall inflation rate has risen, the core inflation rate remains stable. Following the release of this data, market expectations for a Fed interest rate cut in December have significantly increased.
According to the latest data from CME's "Fed Watch," the probability of the Fed maintaining the current interest rate in December is only 3.3%, while the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut has risen to 96.7%.
As for the interest rate decision in January next year, the probability of maintaining the current rate is 2.6%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 76.7%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point cut is 20.7%.
These expectations reflect the market's predictions regarding the future direction of the Fed's monetary policy, showing a general anticipation that the Fed will continue to cut rates in response to the current economic conditions.
🗣️ Conclusion:
In light of these favorable factors, the price of Bitcoin has surged strongly in a few hours, breaking through $100,000, while Ethereum has also shown strength, surpassing $3,800.
Although Bitcoin has successfully broken through the previous consolidation zone, whether the market can maintain this critical level of $100,000 still requires further observation of the daily chart trends.
In summary, volatility remains an undeniable factor in the cryptocurrency market. Investors should remain cautious and closely monitor market dynamics to make informed investment decisions.
💬 What are your thoughts on this data? What decision do you think the Fed will make in December? Leave your views in the comments!
