How to win the airdrop game?
The secret of large numbers.
We will admit that for each airdrop in which you participate, you have:
- 50% chance of receiving nothing.
- 30% chance of having an OK airdrop that reimburses your costs.
- 20% chance of having a good airdrop.
(Yep, I pulled that out of my hat).
If you participate in just one airdrop, you have an 80% chance of ending up in a case that ranges from not great to mediocre.
It's not great.
And what's more, the majority of the time is lost.
On the other hand, if you play the big numbers game.
Let's say you participate in 10 airdrops.
There, you are almost sure to cover your costs, even to make a profit.
With this scenario for 10 rolls of the dice.
On 5 positions, you screw up completely and you lose your bet.
In 3, you get your stake back.
And in 2 really good cases, you multiply your bet by 10.
We go from a really bad strategy to a coherent strategy just by multiplying iterations.
And I really took horrible stats for the example.
I think we are more in:
- 20% No airdrop
- 40% Average Airdrop
- 40% Airdrop which is worth it
โBut Mage, I donโt have the budget to play more than one airdrop!โ
It might hurt you.
But you probably have no business in this game if you gamble your entire wallet in fees every time you hunt something.
And so you have to wait for the slightest thing to fall so you can at least try again - if that only if luck is on your side.
If you don't have $100 in your wallet, there are probably other things you should focus on before chasing airdrops or putting marbles in shitcoins.
I don't say that to be mean.
You just have to be realistic.
