—The three key points are barbell, long hold, and leaders.
"The better the prediction, the greater the risk."
I once "escaped the peak" at the end of April, with an 80% empty position. When it later dropped from nearly 70,000 to 49,000, I was once smug, but the only gain was the lesson above and the potential for amazing losses.
Because of this, I wrote a sentence: knowing "what to do" made me a lot of money; not knowing "what not to do" caused me to lose a lot of money.
It doesn't matter if you don't understand the above; just ignore it. Let's talk directly about positions and logic.
1. Let's talk about trends first.
First, let's state my viewpoint: my judgment is that the bull market has just begun.
First, will BTC drop to 50,000 or 60,000 before a big increase? I don't care. My current strategy is to be fully invested, only eating this trend wave, so don’t interpret my statement that the bull market has just begun as me saying it will keep rising to the sky—those who keep predicting won’t make too much money.
I don’t know if BTC can reach 200,000 or 300,000; just knowing that it has just begun is enough—there’s no need to refute or criticize me, nor to argue. I’ve spent tens of millions of dollars to back this judgment.
Everyone has inertia. The old investors made a lot of money during the 4-year cycle, so they can bravely buy at the bottom in this round when it exceeds 20,000, and they gradually started selling when it reached 100,000. This is reasonable.
But this is precisely the main reason I see the bull market just beginning. This round is no longer determined by the old investors, but by micro-strategies, Microsoft, Mara, the U.S. National Reserve, the Russian National Reserve, and the pension funds of various countries.
2. Let's talk about strategy again.
Making money from trends is like riding an ascending elevator, but trying to make money from volatility is like swimming in the deep sea, jumping high on steep slopes, which is very difficult.
Therefore, I think in terms of cryptocurrency standards, only considering whether all my operations can exchange for more BTC instead of how much fiat currency, in this case, I will only switch positions or reduce positions back to Bitcoin operations, but will not sell coins for USD or exchange them for fiat currency.
So, my logic is very simple:
Large positions in BTC + small positions in high risk.
Abandon everything in between, such as the 6 billion MOVE and ME, let others play with that; I don't have that capability.
Coins like PEPE and DOGE are top meme coins, but for me, their odds are average, so I also gave them up. They should be able to rise more than BTC, but it doesn't matter if I earn a little less; it's better to hold BTC.
I choose small positions in high risk primarily for high odds.
3. Let's talk about small positions in high risk again.
Here, there is actually the first step, which is to convert part of the BTC position into ETH, SOL, BNB. These are the chips to play with on-chain coins; these three are essential.
Which ones to choose? Just give me my recent thoughts—note that the market changes at any time, and I will also change, but I may not update position changes at all times; all opinions only apply to the present.
First, definitely choose memes, which ones?
My point is to pick the leading coins in good sectors. Early meme coins in PVP can make money, but there is a higher probability of losing money. Picking the leading coins that have emerged seems to earn less, but in reality, they earn more. After Pnut was listed on Binance, it had a market value of several hundred million dollars. Entering when Musk tweeted, in just a few days, a single coin made 2.5 million USD, much simpler than PVP.
What are good sectors? Cats and dogs, frogs, and cults are not cheap; the key point is that it is particularly difficult to clarify one thing: why can I make money by heavily investing here? Is it because the cost is low? Or is it because the upper limit is very high? I don't have a particularly good feeling.
"I don’t need to understand everything; I just need to make money where I understand."
1. AI Meme
The sector I am most optimistic about is AI meme. This is the global context, unstoppable, and interestingly, AI memes are very different from other memes.
Ignited by $GOAT, backed by A16Z and Wintermute, it went live on Binance contracts, and the high point has corrected a lot.
$GOAT is pure meme, created by @truth_terminal and another AI, and currently, it is also starting to become a top trend on Twitter, spreading every day.
After $GOAT, the AI meme sector was established. Previously, it built a virtual platform that no one paid attention to for a year, and it began to release AI agents with various functions, such as investment experts like @aixbt_agent, etc. You can understand these agents as different personalities in the AI field; some do live broadcasts, some tell jokes, and some do investment analysis, very different.
What can be foreseen and confirmed here is that countless agents will emerge next. These agents are all AI, but not necessarily all memes. However, unlike traditional gather projects in the crypto world, they will all have different roles, such as the following things you might use:
For example, an AI that helps you invest and automatically trade memes; you just need to tell it how to trade, and it will help you operate 24 hours a day, likely better than most people.
For example, helping you tweet, analyzing various projects—now, do not underestimate AI; they have already generally surpassed the level of human PhDs.
Thus, there will be some coins, such as: $VIRTUAL.
It is an agent platform with agents continuously emerging, and various scenarios need to consume VIRTUAL, leading to the token price continually rising. This is practical.
There are also similar platforms like $AI16Z, $VVAIFU, $ZEREBRO, etc.
But you will soon discover a problem: if you want to trade agents, won't you feel confused? Every day there are new ones, each with different functions, and there will always be a better next one. So how to buy?
Thus, the conclusion is drawn: buying platform tokens is more stable than trading agents. For example, buying VIRTUAL—although it's not cheap anymore, if the agents explode, it will be an important target. Previously, it reached 2, yesterday it dropped to 1.3, and now it's at 1.6.
Seeing this, you should suddenly discover one thing: $GOAT is like BTC, while $VIRTUAL is like ETH.
$GOAT has no special practicality, nor does it need to. It is the first coin to ignite the AI meme sector, and it has gone through a long wash phase. A16Z's co-founder is still promoting it in many occasions today, and Wintermute's main market-making project is sufficient.
While $VIRTUAL is like a public chain, there will be countless projects on it. Other projects like $AI16Z are like other public chains and will also have countless different projects.
So, my choice is to buy both GOAT and VIRTUAL. As for the buying price, they will also follow the market, buying in batches slowly, holding for a few months, and waiting for OpenAI to lead the AI agents.
Additionally, is $GOAT the leader? What’s on Binance is ACT, but I think it should be an objective fact, not determined by whether it is listed on Binance.
Recently, Binance launched MOVE. Although the mainnet is not yet live, it does not affect the market cap reaching 15 billion FDV. I believe these are important factors to aid the meme's resurgence—eventually, those who do not move will return to memes.
In AI memes, I also hold a smaller market cap coin, only over 30 million USD, called REALIS.
EBGaJP7srpUUN8eRdta1MsojrNtweuHYsdP3P1TRpump
Background: "Artificial intelligence deserves its own world. Life and death are within it."
White paper: https://medium.com/@zenithdev/realis-worlds-ai-embodiment-evolutionary-pressures-and-alignment-with-human-objectives-in-4939cd1ded83…
It aims to let all artificial intelligences truly live within it and observe their similar interactions and behaviors. I think this is very interesting, so I included it in my considerations. Of course, its risk lies in how the world will land, etc.; everyone can judge for themselves.
Of course, I also bought 600,000 $AIXBT for convenience in using its terminal.
I also bought $GAME on VIRTUAL, an interactive framework for agents. It has not been assigned any utility yet, but it should be useful in the future.
2. Other memes
The religious mascot leader $LUCE is strong, with high odds. For Binance, the launch should attract many newcomers, especially since there are 1.7 billion Catholics worldwide—others cannot lead this trend, but Binance will definitely attract a lot of attention.
I randomly held a little $KOMA on BSC, don’t understand it, and not much.
4. Finally
There will also be some value coins and the like, which change relatively quickly, so I won't bother to write them all down.
